Market icon
Elecciones·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38

Market icon
Elecciones·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38

Jon Bonck 94.4%

Shelly deZevallos 1.5%

Jennifer Sundt 1.0%

Avery Ayers <1%

Polymarket

$28,301 Vol.

Jon Bonck 94.4%

Shelly deZevallos 1.5%

Jennifer Sundt 1.0%

Avery Ayers <1%

Polymarket

$28,301 Vol.

Jon Bonck

$16,452 Vol.

94%

Shelly deZevallos

$3,015 Vol.

1%

Jennifer Sundt

$2,227 Vol.

1%

Avery Ayers

$2,210 Vol.

1%

Michael Pratt

$0 Vol.

1%

Jeff Yuna

$2,411 Vol.

1%

Craig Goralski

$0 Vol.

<1%

Barrett McNabb

$0 Vol.

<1%

Larry Rubin

$1,985 Vol.

<1%

Carmen Montiel

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's commanding 47% in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 38th Congressional District—more than double Shelly deZevallos' 19% in a crowded 10-candidate field—has driven trader consensus to a 94% implied probability of him winning the May 26 runoff in this GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt. Key factors include pre-primary endorsements from President Trump, Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and House Republican leadership, plus post-primary backing from eliminated rivals like Michael Pratt, alongside a fundraising edge ($1.1 million raised versus deZevallos' $765,000 through February). While low-turnout runoffs often favor frontrunners with organization, an upset could stem from deZevallos securing major endorsements, a Bonck scandal, or depressed turnout among his base.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$28,301
Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's commanding 47% in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 38th Congressional District—more than double Shelly deZevallos' 19% in a crowded 10-candidate field—has driven trader consensus to a 94% implied probability of him winning the May 26 runoff in this GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt. Key factors include pre-primary endorsements from President Trump, Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and House Republican leadership, plus post-primary backing from eliminated rivals like Michael Pratt, alongside a fundraising edge ($1.1 million raised versus deZevallos' $765,000 through February). While low-turnout runoffs often favor frontrunners with organization, an upset could stem from deZevallos securing major endorsements, a Bonck scandal, or depressed turnout among his base.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$28,301
Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 10 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Jon Bonck" con 94%, seguido de "Shelly deZevallos" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 94¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 94% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38" ha generado $28.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38", explora los 10 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38" es "Jon Bonck" con 94%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 94% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Shelly deZevallos" con 1%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de TX-38" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.