President José Antonio Kast's administration, inaugurated March 11, secured congressional approval on March 24 for the first extension of the constitutional state of emergency in the southern Macrozona Sur—covering Araucanía and parts of Biobío regions—to address persistent localized violence amid Mapuche territorial disputes, effective from March 27. This targeted measure, allowing military support for police without suspending broader civil liberties, contrasts with the more severe state of siege, which requires grave internal commotion and congressional ratification. Recent student protests in Santiago over education budget cuts on March 26 prompted police water cannons but remained contained, with no reports of nationwide unrest. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on No reflects consensus that current security challenges do not warrant escalation to a full estado de sitio declaration by June 30, absent major new triggers like widespread violence or institutional breakdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Estado de Sitio declarado en Chile antes del 30 de junio?
¿Estado de Sitio declarado en Chile antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$29,920 Vol.
$29,920 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$29,920 Vol.
$29,920 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast's administration, inaugurated March 11, secured congressional approval on March 24 for the first extension of the constitutional state of emergency in the southern Macrozona Sur—covering Araucanía and parts of Biobío regions—to address persistent localized violence amid Mapuche territorial disputes, effective from March 27. This targeted measure, allowing military support for police without suspending broader civil liberties, contrasts with the more severe state of siege, which requires grave internal commotion and congressional ratification. Recent student protests in Santiago over education budget cuts on March 26 prompted police water cannons but remained contained, with no reports of nationwide unrest. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on No reflects consensus that current security challenges do not warrant escalation to a full estado de sitio declaration by June 30, absent major new triggers like widespread violence or institutional breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$29,920Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast's administration, inaugurated March 11, secured congressional approval on March 24 for the first extension of the constitutional state of emergency in the southern Macrozona Sur—covering Araucanía and parts of Biobío regions—to address persistent localized violence amid Mapuche territorial disputes, effective from March 27. This targeted measure, allowing military support for police without suspending broader civil liberties, contrasts with the more severe state of siege, which requires grave internal commotion and congressional ratification. Recent student protests in Santiago over education budget cuts on March 26 prompted police water cannons but remained contained, with no reports of nationwide unrest. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on No reflects consensus that current security challenges do not warrant escalation to a full estado de sitio declaration by June 30, absent major new triggers like widespread violence or institutional breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$29,920Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President José Antonio Kast's administration, inaugurated March 11, secured congressional approval on March 24 for the first extension of the constitutional state of emergency in the southern Macrozona Sur—covering Araucanía and parts of Biobío regions—to address persistent localized violence amid Mapuche territorial disputes, effective from March 27. This targeted measure, allowing military support for police without suspending broader civil liberties, contrasts with the more severe state of siege, which requires grave internal commotion and congressional ratification. Recent student protests in Santiago over education budget cuts on March 26 prompted police water cannons but remained contained, with no reports of nationwide unrest. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on No reflects consensus that current security challenges do not warrant escalation to a full estado de sitio declaration by June 30, absent major new triggers like widespread violence or institutional breakdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes