Name: Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Start: 2024-11-08T16:04:58.059088Z
End: 2025-01-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the margin of victory in the popular vote, categorized into 0.25% ranges.

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 2.25% or more of the popular vote when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

GOP by 2.25% or more

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 2.0% (inclusive) and 2.25% (exclusive) of the popular vote when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

GOP by 2.0%-2.25%

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1.75% (inclusive) and 2.0% (exclusive) of the popular vote when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

GOP by 1.75%-2.0%

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1.5% (inclusive) and 1.75% (exclusive) of the popular vote when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

GOP by 1.5%-1.75%

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by less than 1.5% of the popular vote when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

GOP by <1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the federal funds rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “Other” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (<2 or ≥2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

¿La decisión del FOMC de enero de 2026 resultará en ningún cambio con menos de 2 desacuerdos?

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

¿Será el límite superior de la tasa objetivo de fondos federales del 3,0% al final de 2026?

If the Bill Ackman Index performs better than the S&P 500 Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “Ackman”. If the S&P 500 Index performs better than the Bill Ackman Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “S&P”. 

The performance of each index will be the 1-month trailing percentage return of the index for the final trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for the Bill Ackman Index ("Ackman") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559452008356167680

Information from the "Performance" table for the Bill Ackman Index, specifically the 1-month trailing percentage return figures found under "1M", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified month.

If the Bill Ackman Index’s 1-month trailing percentage return figure for the last trading day of the specified month is not published by the time that the figure for the first trading day of the next month is published, this market will resolve based on the most recent 1-month trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior to the last trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for S&P 500 ("S&P") is: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

Information from the "Historical Prices" table for the S&P 500 will be used to resolve this market. The S&P 500’s 1-month trailing percentage return will be calculated as the percentage change between the S&P 500’s closing price on the final trading day of the specified month and its closing price on the same calendar day of the previous month. If the relevant day in the previous month was not a trading day, the most recent trading day before this day will be used. If the same calendar day does not exist in the previous month, the return will be calculated using the final trading day of the previous month. Note that all relevant figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If either of the relevant days lack a specified closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price for that day.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price or 1-month return figure published for each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If both indices perform exactly the same over this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve 50-50.

Updates to historical prices or figures displayed by any of the indices subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are later updated.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

GOP by <1.5%
$3,747,288 Vol.
Yes

GOP by 1.5%-1.75%
$3,158,521 Vol.
No

GOP by 1.75%-2.0%
$3,662,053 Vol.
No

GOP by 2.0%-2.25%
$932,988 Vol.
No

GOP by 2.25% or more
$3,347,128 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Reglas

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Contexto del Mercado

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Acerca de

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

GOP by <1.5%$3,747,288 Vol.Yes

GOP by 1.5%-1.75%$3,158,521 Vol.No

GOP by 1.75%-2.0%$3,662,053 Vol.No

GOP by 2.0%-2.25%$932,988 Vol.No

GOP by 2.25% or more$3,347,128 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Reglas

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Contexto del Mercado

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Acerca de

GOP by <1.5%
$3,747,288 Vol.
Yes

GOP by 1.5%-1.75%
$3,158,521 Vol.
No

GOP by 1.75%-2.0%
$3,662,053 Vol.
No

GOP by 2.0%-2.25%
$932,988 Vol.
No

GOP by 2.25% or more
$3,347,128 Vol.
No