Market icon

¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?

Market icon

¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?

$140,941 Vol.

Feb 20, 2026
Polymarket

$140,941 Vol.

Polymarket

>20%

$70,959 Vol.

>30%

$69,982 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.comThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-30-2 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Volumen
$140,941
Fecha de finalización
Feb 20, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Resultado propuesto: Sí

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Sí

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.comThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-30-2 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es ">20%" con 100%, seguido de ">30%" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?" ha generado $140.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 18, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?" es ">20%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es ">30%" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Probabilidades de que Estados Unidos ataque a Irán en febrero sobre __ el viernes?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.