Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for the NY-12 House election winner, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+29) and long-serving incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's entrenched position in this urban Manhattan stronghold. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as competitive polling shifts, scandals, or high-profile endorsements—have emerged to challenge this dominance, following Nadler's easy Democratic primary victory earlier this year against minimal opposition. The Republican nominee remains a decided underdog lacking resources or name recognition to mount a credible threat. While extraordinary scenarios like a late-breaking Nadler scandal, massive GOP turnout surge, or legal ballot issues could theoretically shift odds, historical precedents in safe seats show such upsets are rare absent seismic national waves. Resolution awaits certified election results post-November 5.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for the NY-12 House election winner, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+29) and long-serving incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's entrenched position in this urban Manhattan stronghold. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as competitive polling shifts, scandals, or high-profile endorsements—have emerged to challenge this dominance, following Nadler's easy Democratic primary victory earlier this year against minimal opposition. The Republican nominee remains a decided underdog lacking resources or name recognition to mount a credible threat. While extraordinary scenarios like a late-breaking Nadler scandal, massive GOP turnout surge, or legal ballot issues could theoretically shift odds, historical precedents in safe seats show such upsets are rare absent seismic national waves. Resolution awaits certified election results post-November 5.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for the NY-12 House election winner, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+29) and long-serving incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's entrenched position in this urban Manhattan stronghold. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as competitive polling shifts, scandals, or high-profile endorsements—have emerged to challenge this dominance, following Nadler's easy Democratic primary victory earlier this year against minimal opposition. The Republican nominee remains a decided underdog lacking resources or name recognition to mount a credible threat. While extraordinary scenarios like a late-breaking Nadler scandal, massive GOP turnout surge, or legal ballot issues could theoretically shift odds, historical precedents in safe seats show such upsets are rare absent seismic national waves. Resolution awaits certified election results post-November 5.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for the NY-12 House election winner, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+29) and long-serving incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's entrenched position in this urban Manhattan stronghold. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as competitive polling shifts, scandals, or high-profile endorsements—have emerged to challenge this dominance, following Nadler's easy Democratic primary victory earlier this year against minimal opposition. The Republican nominee remains a decided underdog lacking resources or name recognition to mount a credible threat. While extraordinary scenarios like a late-breaking Nadler scandal, massive GOP turnout surge, or legal ballot issues could theoretically shift odds, historical precedents in safe seats show such upsets are rare absent seismic national waves. Resolution awaits certified election results post-November 5.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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