Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's bid for a third term anchors trader consensus at 91% odds for a GOP victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Trump's 2024 landslide and consistent GOP sweeps of statewide offices. Recent polls from mid-March show a tight closed GOP primary on May 16 among Cassidy, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, and former Rep. John Fleming, but these intra-party dynamics have not dented general election expectations amid a sparse Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a scandal-tainted GOP nominee, health issues, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in this midterm cycle.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
91%
Demócrata
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
$0 Vol.
91%
Demócrata
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's bid for a third term anchors trader consensus at 91% odds for a GOP victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Trump's 2024 landslide and consistent GOP sweeps of statewide offices. Recent polls from mid-March show a tight closed GOP primary on May 16 among Cassidy, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, and former Rep. John Fleming, but these intra-party dynamics have not dented general election expectations amid a sparse Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a scandal-tainted GOP nominee, health issues, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in this midterm cycle.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's bid for a third term anchors trader consensus at 91% odds for a GOP victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Trump's 2024 landslide and consistent GOP sweeps of statewide offices. Recent polls from mid-March show a tight closed GOP primary on May 16 among Cassidy, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, and former Rep. John Fleming, but these intra-party dynamics have not dented general election expectations amid a sparse Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a scandal-tainted GOP nominee, health issues, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in this midterm cycle.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's bid for a third term anchors trader consensus at 91% odds for a GOP victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Trump's 2024 landslide and consistent GOP sweeps of statewide offices. Recent polls from mid-March show a tight closed GOP primary on May 16 among Cassidy, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, and former Rep. John Fleming, but these intra-party dynamics have not dented general election expectations amid a sparse Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a scandal-tainted GOP nominee, health issues, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in this midterm cycle.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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