US-mediated diplomacy culminated in a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced November 27, requiring Israeli forces to withdraw south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah north of the Litani River, and enhanced monitoring by the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeepers. This followed Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and the September 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah amid daily cross-border rocket fire and airstrikes. Early violations, including Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, have tested compliance, while diplomatic pressures from the US, Qatar, and France persist. Traders weigh the ceasefire's fragility against escalation risks, with key tests in phased withdrawals and upcoming UN Security Council reviews on implementation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Israel x Hezbollah alto el fuego por...?
¿Israel x Hezbollah alto el fuego por...?
$364,433 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
31 de marzo
1%
30 de junio
42%
30 de abril
17%
$364,433 Vol.
31 de marzo
$325,605 Vol.
1%
30 de junio
$37,948 Vol.
42%
30 de abril
$879 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-mediated diplomacy culminated in a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced November 27, requiring Israeli forces to withdraw south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah north of the Litani River, and enhanced monitoring by the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeepers. This followed Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and the September 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah amid daily cross-border rocket fire and airstrikes. Early violations, including Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, have tested compliance, while diplomatic pressures from the US, Qatar, and France persist. Traders weigh the ceasefire's fragility against escalation risks, with key tests in phased withdrawals and upcoming UN Security Council reviews on implementation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$364,433Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-mediated diplomacy culminated in a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced November 27, requiring Israeli forces to withdraw south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah north of the Litani River, and enhanced monitoring by the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeepers. This followed Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and the September 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah amid daily cross-border rocket fire and airstrikes. Early violations, including Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, have tested compliance, while diplomatic pressures from the US, Qatar, and France persist. Traders weigh the ceasefire's fragility against escalation risks, with key tests in phased withdrawals and upcoming UN Security Council reviews on implementation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$364,433Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated diplomacy culminated in a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced November 27, requiring Israeli forces to withdraw south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah north of the Litani River, and enhanced monitoring by the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeepers. This followed Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and the September 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah amid daily cross-border rocket fire and airstrikes. Early violations, including Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, have tested compliance, while diplomatic pressures from the US, Qatar, and France persist. Traders weigh the ceasefire's fragility against escalation risks, with key tests in phased withdrawals and upcoming UN Security Council reviews on implementation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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