Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalating military conflict and stalled nuclear diplomacy. US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, prompting Iranian retaliation near an Israeli nuclear site, amid an ongoing war that has shattered prior indirect talks in Geneva. Those February negotiations collapsed without a deal, as the Trump administration demanded complete dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and handover of highly enriched uranium stockpiles—demands Iran rejected while insisting on its right to enrichment under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding 60% enriched uranium stockpile and undeclared facilities in Isfahan, further eroding trust. With hostilities intensifying and no scheduled talks, barriers to any agreement remain formidable ahead of the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de abril?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de abril?
Sí
$130,905 Vol.
$130,905 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sí
$130,905 Vol.
$130,905 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalating military conflict and stalled nuclear diplomacy. US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, prompting Iranian retaliation near an Israeli nuclear site, amid an ongoing war that has shattered prior indirect talks in Geneva. Those February negotiations collapsed without a deal, as the Trump administration demanded complete dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and handover of highly enriched uranium stockpiles—demands Iran rejected while insisting on its right to enrichment under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding 60% enriched uranium stockpile and undeclared facilities in Isfahan, further eroding trust. With hostilities intensifying and no scheduled talks, barriers to any agreement remain formidable ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volumen
$130,905Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalating military conflict and stalled nuclear diplomacy. US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, prompting Iranian retaliation near an Israeli nuclear site, amid an ongoing war that has shattered prior indirect talks in Geneva. Those February negotiations collapsed without a deal, as the Trump administration demanded complete dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and handover of highly enriched uranium stockpiles—demands Iran rejected while insisting on its right to enrichment under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding 60% enriched uranium stockpile and undeclared facilities in Isfahan, further eroding trust. With hostilities intensifying and no scheduled talks, barriers to any agreement remain formidable ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$130,905Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalating military conflict and stalled nuclear diplomacy. US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, prompting Iranian retaliation near an Israeli nuclear site, amid an ongoing war that has shattered prior indirect talks in Geneva. Those February negotiations collapsed without a deal, as the Trump administration demanded complete dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and handover of highly enriched uranium stockpiles—demands Iran rejected while insisting on its right to enrichment under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding 60% enriched uranium stockpile and undeclared facilities in Isfahan, further eroding trust. With hostilities intensifying and no scheduled talks, barriers to any agreement remain formidable ahead of the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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