Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election winner favors TISZA at 63.5% implied probability, driven by consistent opinion polls showing Péter Magyar's party leading Fidesz-KDNP at 35.5%, with other opposition groups like DK, Momentum, and MSZP polling under 5% combined. Magyar's anti-corruption platform has surged since TISZA's 29% in the June 2024 EU elections, capitalizing on public frustration over inflation, EU fund disputes, and governance scandals eroding Orbán's Fidesz dominance after 14 years in power. Recent developments include Magyar's mass rallies drawing tens of thousands and Fidesz's internal cohesion amid low turnout fears. Fragmented rivals lack momentum, positioning TISZA as frontrunner ahead of the 2026 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Hungría
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Hungría
TISZA 64%
Fidesz-KDNP 36%
Párbeszéd <1%
DK <1%
$15,465,308 Vol.
$15,465,308 Vol.

TISZA
64%

Fidesz-KDNP
36%

Párbeszéd
<1%

DK
<1%

Momentum
<1%

LMP
<1%

MSZP
<1%

Mi Hazánk
<1%

Jobbik
<1%

KDNP
<1%
TISZA 64%
Fidesz-KDNP 36%
Párbeszéd <1%
DK <1%
$15,465,308 Vol.
$15,465,308 Vol.

TISZA
64%

Fidesz-KDNP
36%

Párbeszéd
<1%

DK
<1%

Momentum
<1%

LMP
<1%

MSZP
<1%

Mi Hazánk
<1%

Jobbik
<1%

KDNP
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election winner favors TISZA at 63.5% implied probability, driven by consistent opinion polls showing Péter Magyar's party leading Fidesz-KDNP at 35.5%, with other opposition groups like DK, Momentum, and MSZP polling under 5% combined. Magyar's anti-corruption platform has surged since TISZA's 29% in the June 2024 EU elections, capitalizing on public frustration over inflation, EU fund disputes, and governance scandals eroding Orbán's Fidesz dominance after 14 years in power. Recent developments include Magyar's mass rallies drawing tens of thousands and Fidesz's internal cohesion amid low turnout fears. Fragmented rivals lack momentum, positioning TISZA as frontrunner ahead of the 2026 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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