Trader consensus prices fewer than five ships targeted by Iran by March 31 at 95.5%, driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against vessels in the past 30 days despite ongoing Red Sea disruptions. Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks on commercial shipping, including strikes claimed on March 23 and 28 that damaged or halted ships, prompting US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets as recently as March 24; however, Tehran has confined itself to proxy support, condemnations, and diplomatic posturing rather than overt IRGC operations. With the deadline hours away and strong US naval deterrence in the region, this commanding lead reflects Iran's strategic restraint to avoid full-scale escalation. Realistic challenges include a last-minute ship seizure or missile barrage amid Israel-Iran tensions, though no such signals have emerged.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
<5 96%
5–7 3.3%
20+ <1%
8–10 <1%
$44,638 Vol.
$44,638 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
96%
5–7
3%
8–10
1%
11–13
<1%
14–16
<1%
17–19
<1%
20+
1%
<5 96%
5–7 3.3%
20+ <1%
8–10 <1%
$44,638 Vol.
$44,638 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$21,592 Vol.
96%
5–7
$4,874 Vol.
3%
8–10
$3,023 Vol.
1%
11–13
$2,177 Vol.
<1%
14–16
$4,227 Vol.
<1%
17–19
$2,452 Vol.
<1%
20+
$6,294 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than five ships targeted by Iran by March 31 at 95.5%, driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against vessels in the past 30 days despite ongoing Red Sea disruptions. Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks on commercial shipping, including strikes claimed on March 23 and 28 that damaged or halted ships, prompting US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets as recently as March 24; however, Tehran has confined itself to proxy support, condemnations, and diplomatic posturing rather than overt IRGC operations. With the deadline hours away and strong US naval deterrence in the region, this commanding lead reflects Iran's strategic restraint to avoid full-scale escalation. Realistic challenges include a last-minute ship seizure or missile barrage amid Israel-Iran tensions, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volumen
$44,638Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than five ships targeted by Iran by March 31 at 95.5%, driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against vessels in the past 30 days despite ongoing Red Sea disruptions. Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks on commercial shipping, including strikes claimed on March 23 and 28 that damaged or halted ships, prompting US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets as recently as March 24; however, Tehran has confined itself to proxy support, condemnations, and diplomatic posturing rather than overt IRGC operations. With the deadline hours away and strong US naval deterrence in the region, this commanding lead reflects Iran's strategic restraint to avoid full-scale escalation. Realistic challenges include a last-minute ship seizure or missile barrage amid Israel-Iran tensions, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$44,638Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices fewer than five ships targeted by Iran by March 31 at 95.5%, driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against vessels in the past 30 days despite ongoing Red Sea disruptions. Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks on commercial shipping, including strikes claimed on March 23 and 28 that damaged or halted ships, prompting US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets as recently as March 24; however, Tehran has confined itself to proxy support, condemnations, and diplomatic posturing rather than overt IRGC operations. With the deadline hours away and strong US naval deterrence in the region, this commanding lead reflects Iran's strategic restraint to avoid full-scale escalation. Realistic challenges include a last-minute ship seizure or missile barrage amid Israel-Iran tensions, though no such signals have emerged.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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