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Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

11°C 44%

10°C 22%

12°C 20%

9°C 3.9%

Polymarket

$33,620 Vol.

11°C 44%

10°C 22%

12°C 20%

9°C 3.9%

Polymarket

$33,620 Vol.

6°C

$5,869 Vol.

<1%

7°C

$1,695 Vol.

<1%

8°C

$3,277 Vol.

1%

9°C

$2,766 Vol.

4%

10°C

$2,778 Vol.

22%

11°C

$2,810 Vol.

44%

12°C

$2,390 Vol.

20%

13°C

$2,381 Vol.

4%

14°C

$3,010 Vol.

1%

15°C or higher

$4,128 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 27 at around 11°C, driving trader consensus with 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects a mild southerly airflow displacing colder continental air masses that dominated early March, with recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means centering on 10–12°C amid building high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Model runs over the past 48 hours show minimal shifts, though slight warm biases in some members support the tight clustering of probabilities for 10°C (23.5%) and 12°C (19.5%). Traders eye tonight's updated 12Z model outputs for potential refinements ahead of the event, given typical spring forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$33,620
Fecha de finalización
Mar 27, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:17 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 27 at around 11°C, driving trader consensus with 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects a mild southerly airflow displacing colder continental air masses that dominated early March, with recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means centering on 10–12°C amid building high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Model runs over the past 48 hours show minimal shifts, though slight warm biases in some members support the tight clustering of probabilities for 10°C (23.5%) and 12°C (19.5%). Traders eye tonight's updated 12Z model outputs for potential refinements ahead of the event, given typical spring forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing.

Latest forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 27 at around 11°C, driving trader consensus with 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects a mild southerly airflow displacing colder continental air masses that dominated early March, with recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means centering on 10–12°C amid building high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Model runs over the past 48 hours show minimal shifts, though slight warm biases in some members support the tight clustering of probabilities for 10°C (23.5%) and 12°C (19.5%). Traders eye tonight's updated 12Z model outputs for potential refinements ahead of the event, given typical spring forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "11°C" con 45%, seguido de "10°C" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 45¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 45% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" ha generado $33.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 23, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" es "11°C" con 45%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 45% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "10°C" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.