Traders' near-unanimous 99.9% consensus on a 5°C high temperature in Toronto on March 20 stems from Environment Canada's latest short-range forecasts, which consistently project this exact peak amid stable high-pressure ridging and cool northerly flows. Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS align closely, showing minimal spread around 4-6°C based on verified upper-air data and sea surface temperatures favoring persistence. Historical late-March averages (3-6°C highs) further bolster this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm front from the U.S. Midwest or model bust from rapid jet stream shifts, though current synoptic patterns make deviations above 7°C improbable without major updates in the next 24 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Toronto el 20 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Toronto el 20 de marzo?
5°C 99.8%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$273,021 Vol.
$273,021 Vol.
5°C
100%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C o más
<1%
5°C 99.8%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$273,021 Vol.
$273,021 Vol.
5°C
100%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous 99.9% consensus on a 5°C high temperature in Toronto on March 20 stems from Environment Canada's latest short-range forecasts, which consistently project this exact peak amid stable high-pressure ridging and cool northerly flows. Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS align closely, showing minimal spread around 4-6°C based on verified upper-air data and sea surface temperatures favoring persistence. Historical late-March averages (3-6°C highs) further bolster this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm front from the U.S. Midwest or model bust from rapid jet stream shifts, though current synoptic patterns make deviations above 7°C improbable without major updates in the next 24 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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