Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on March 26, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording a daytime peak of precisely 24°C amid mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Leading up to the date, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converged tightly on 23-25°C ranges over the prior 48 hours, driven by stable high-pressure influence suppressing warmer advection and no föhn wind effects. This positioning reflects low uncertainty in urban temperature measurements, where historical March variability in Chengdu averages ±2°C. Realistic challenges—such as data revisions from remote sensors or rare microclimate discrepancies—remain improbable below 0.5% likelihood, with final CMA validation due shortly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$33,737 Vol.
$33,737 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$33,737 Vol.
$33,737 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$0 Vol.
No
20°C
$0 Vol.
No
21°C
$0 Vol.
No
22°C
$0 Vol.
No
23°C
$0 Vol.
No
24°C
$14,335 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$11,043 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,769 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$3,590 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on March 26, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording a daytime peak of precisely 24°C amid mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Leading up to the date, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converged tightly on 23-25°C ranges over the prior 48 hours, driven by stable high-pressure influence suppressing warmer advection and no föhn wind effects. This positioning reflects low uncertainty in urban temperature measurements, where historical March variability in Chengdu averages ±2°C. Realistic challenges—such as data revisions from remote sensors or rare microclimate discrepancies—remain improbable below 0.5% likelihood, with final CMA validation due shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volumen
$33,737Fecha de finalización
Mar 26, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on March 26, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording a daytime peak of precisely 24°C amid mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Leading up to the date, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converged tightly on 23-25°C ranges over the prior 48 hours, driven by stable high-pressure influence suppressing warmer advection and no föhn wind effects. This positioning reflects low uncertainty in urban temperature measurements, where historical March variability in Chengdu averages ±2°C. Realistic challenges—such as data revisions from remote sensors or rare microclimate discrepancies—remain improbable below 0.5% likelihood, with final CMA validation due shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$33,737Fecha de finalización
Mar 26, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on March 26, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording a daytime peak of precisely 24°C amid mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Leading up to the date, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converged tightly on 23-25°C ranges over the prior 48 hours, driven by stable high-pressure influence suppressing warmer advection and no föhn wind effects. This positioning reflects low uncertainty in urban temperature measurements, where historical March variability in Chengdu averages ±2°C. Realistic challenges—such as data revisions from remote sensors or rare microclimate discrepancies—remain improbable below 0.5% likelihood, with final CMA validation due shortly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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