Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold with a partisan voter index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 94% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 general election. Case cruised through the August 10 Democratic primary with over 70% of the vote against challengers, while Republican Scott Chesney won his nomination amid low GOP turnout typical in the district. Recent polls, such as a September CivicScience survey showing Case at 62% to Chesney's 18%, underscore his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and the absence of scandals. With early voting underway since October 22, the market reflects historical precedents of Case's 80%+ margins in 2020 and 2022. Scenarios that could shift odds include a late-breaking Case scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP mobilization in Honolulu-area battlegrounds, though structural barriers make a Republican upset improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold with a partisan voter index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 94% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 general election. Case cruised through the August 10 Democratic primary with over 70% of the vote against challengers, while Republican Scott Chesney won his nomination amid low GOP turnout typical in the district. Recent polls, such as a September CivicScience survey showing Case at 62% to Chesney's 18%, underscore his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and the absence of scandals. With early voting underway since October 22, the market reflects historical precedents of Case's 80%+ margins in 2020 and 2022. Scenarios that could shift odds include a late-breaking Case scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP mobilization in Honolulu-area battlegrounds, though structural barriers make a Republican upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold with a partisan voter index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 94% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 general election. Case cruised through the August 10 Democratic primary with over 70% of the vote against challengers, while Republican Scott Chesney won his nomination amid low GOP turnout typical in the district. Recent polls, such as a September CivicScience survey showing Case at 62% to Chesney's 18%, underscore his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and the absence of scandals. With early voting underway since October 22, the market reflects historical precedents of Case's 80%+ margins in 2020 and 2022. Scenarios that could shift odds include a late-breaking Case scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP mobilization in Honolulu-area battlegrounds, though structural barriers make a Republican upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold with a partisan voter index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 94% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 general election. Case cruised through the August 10 Democratic primary with over 70% of the vote against challengers, while Republican Scott Chesney won his nomination amid low GOP turnout typical in the district. Recent polls, such as a September CivicScience survey showing Case at 62% to Chesney's 18%, underscore his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and the absence of scandals. With early voting underway since October 22, the market reflects historical precedents of Case's 80%+ margins in 2020 and 2022. Scenarios that could shift odds include a late-breaking Case scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP mobilization in Honolulu-area battlegrounds, though structural barriers make a Republican upset improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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