In Bolivia's March 22 subnational elections, the Tribunal Electoral Departamental of Cochabamba officially confirmed Leonardo Loza of Alianza Unión por los Pueblos (A-UPP) as first-round governor winner on March 28 with 40.05% of votes, surpassing the 40% threshold plus a 10-point lead. Absent from Polymarket options, this drives fragmented trader consensus, with Alejandro Mostajo Rueda of Movimiento Tercer Sistema (MTS) leading at 17.6% implied probability due to his infrastructure, water access, and employment proposals appealing to independent voters disillusioned with MAS-aligned factions. Lower odds on Mario Enrique Severich, Juan Roberth Flores, and Sergio Oliver Rodríguez reflect weaker regional bases. Ongoing protests from Cochabamba's zona sur demanding annulment and potential legal challenges to Loza's candidacy could trigger a rerun, consolidating support behind anti-Evo Morales independents like Mostajo if opposition unites.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de la elección de gobernador de Cochabamba (Bolivia)
Ganador de la elección de gobernador de Cochabamba (Bolivia)
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda 35.2%
Mario Enrique Severich 3.9%
Juan Roberth Flores 3.5%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 3.1%
$22,467 Vol.
$22,467 Vol.
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
18%
Mario Enrique Severich
4%
Juan Roberth Flores
4%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
3%
Ruth Alina Peralta
2%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
2%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
2%
Esther Soria Gonzales
1%
Remigio Ancalle
1%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda 35.2%
Mario Enrique Severich 3.9%
Juan Roberth Flores 3.5%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 3.1%
$22,467 Vol.
$22,467 Vol.
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
18%
Mario Enrique Severich
4%
Juan Roberth Flores
4%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
3%
Ruth Alina Peralta
2%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
2%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
2%
Esther Soria Gonzales
1%
Remigio Ancalle
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercado abierto: Jan 20, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Bolivia's March 22 subnational elections, the Tribunal Electoral Departamental of Cochabamba officially confirmed Leonardo Loza of Alianza Unión por los Pueblos (A-UPP) as first-round governor winner on March 28 with 40.05% of votes, surpassing the 40% threshold plus a 10-point lead. Absent from Polymarket options, this drives fragmented trader consensus, with Alejandro Mostajo Rueda of Movimiento Tercer Sistema (MTS) leading at 17.6% implied probability due to his infrastructure, water access, and employment proposals appealing to independent voters disillusioned with MAS-aligned factions. Lower odds on Mario Enrique Severich, Juan Roberth Flores, and Sergio Oliver Rodríguez reflect weaker regional bases. Ongoing protests from Cochabamba's zona sur demanding annulment and potential legal challenges to Loza's candidacy could trigger a rerun, consolidating support behind anti-Evo Morales independents like Mostajo if opposition unites.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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