Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% YoY range, closely tracking economist surveys like Trading Economics' 1.8% consensus following IBGE's March 3 release of Q4 2025's subdued 1.8% YoY expansion amid persistently high Selic rates curbing domestic demand. Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of 0.8%–1.0% q/q growth for Q1 underscores credit stimulus effects, while BBVA Research's March 20 outlook flags 1.7% full-year 2026 growth with monetary easing commencing this month via 25 basis point cuts. Lower bands like 1.1%–1.4% (27%) reflect fiscal risks and inflation near 4%, tempering upside amid pre-election uncertainty; IBGE's Q1 data release looms as the key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 69%
≥2.7% 11%
1.1%–1.4% 8%
1.9%–2.2% 6%
$14,983 Vol.
$14,983 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
11%
0.7%–1.0%
21%
1.1%–1.4%
27%
1.5%–1.8%
57%
1.9%–2.2%
25%
2.3%–2.6%
25%
≥2.7%
11%
1.5%–1.8% 69%
≥2.7% 11%
1.1%–1.4% 8%
1.9%–2.2% 6%
$14,983 Vol.
$14,983 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,310 Vol.
11%
0.7%–1.0%
$32 Vol.
21%
1.1%–1.4%
$45 Vol.
27%
1.5%–1.8%
$288 Vol.
57%
1.9%–2.2%
$90 Vol.
25%
2.3%–2.6%
$32 Vol.
25%
≥2.7%
$1,187 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% YoY range, closely tracking economist surveys like Trading Economics' 1.8% consensus following IBGE's March 3 release of Q4 2025's subdued 1.8% YoY expansion amid persistently high Selic rates curbing domestic demand. Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of 0.8%–1.0% q/q growth for Q1 underscores credit stimulus effects, while BBVA Research's March 20 outlook flags 1.7% full-year 2026 growth with monetary easing commencing this month via 25 basis point cuts. Lower bands like 1.1%–1.4% (27%) reflect fiscal risks and inflation near 4%, tempering upside amid pre-election uncertainty; IBGE's Q1 data release looms as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$14,983Fecha de finalización
May 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% YoY range, closely tracking economist surveys like Trading Economics' 1.8% consensus following IBGE's March 3 release of Q4 2025's subdued 1.8% YoY expansion amid persistently high Selic rates curbing domestic demand. Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of 0.8%–1.0% q/q growth for Q1 underscores credit stimulus effects, while BBVA Research's March 20 outlook flags 1.7% full-year 2026 growth with monetary easing commencing this month via 25 basis point cuts. Lower bands like 1.1%–1.4% (27%) reflect fiscal risks and inflation near 4%, tempering upside amid pre-election uncertainty; IBGE's Q1 data release looms as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$14,983Fecha de finalización
May 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% YoY range, closely tracking economist surveys like Trading Economics' 1.8% consensus following IBGE's March 3 release of Q4 2025's subdued 1.8% YoY expansion amid persistently high Selic rates curbing domestic demand. Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of 0.8%–1.0% q/q growth for Q1 underscores credit stimulus effects, while BBVA Research's March 20 outlook flags 1.7% full-year 2026 growth with monetary easing commencing this month via 25 basis point cuts. Lower bands like 1.1%–1.4% (27%) reflect fiscal risks and inflation near 4%, tempering upside amid pre-election uncertainty; IBGE's Q1 data release looms as the key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes