Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 26°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 17, with market-implied odds at 100%, driven by converged forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting a daytime maximum of 25-27°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds. This positioning aligns with recent observations of mild subtropical highs dominating the region, where March historical averages hover around 23-25°C but current patterns show a slight warm-up without heat advisories. Supporting evidence includes station data from Songshan Airport confirming stable mid-20s peaks. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen intensification of solar insolation from clearing skies or a sudden warm front, potentially nudging toward 28°C, though ensemble model agreement makes this unlikely below 1%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Taipeh am 17. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Taipeh am 17. März?
26°C 100.0%
20°C oder weniger <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
20°C oder weniger
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Nein
26°C
Ja
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C oder höher
Nein
26°C 100.0%
20°C oder weniger <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
20°C oder weniger
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Nein
26°C
Ja
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 26°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 17, with market-implied odds at 100%, driven by converged forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting a daytime maximum of 25-27°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds. This positioning aligns with recent observations of mild subtropical highs dominating the region, where March historical averages hover around 23-25°C but current patterns show a slight warm-up without heat advisories. Supporting evidence includes station data from Songshan Airport confirming stable mid-20s peaks. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen intensification of solar insolation from clearing skies or a sudden warm front, potentially nudging toward 28°C, though ensemble model agreement makes this unlikely below 1%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen