Traders heavily favor a Munich high of 6°C at 58% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD), which converge on a peak temperature in the 5–7°C range amid persistent high-pressure influence and cool northerly airflow. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours reflect weakening solar insolation due to extensive cloud cover and near-surface temperature observations from Munich Airport stations averaging 4–5°C yesterday, aligning with historical late-March climatology where highs rarely exceed 8°C under similar synoptic patterns. Lower odds for warmer outcomes stem from low shear and subsidence suppressing convective heating, while upcoming hourly guidance expected midday March 26 could refine resolution near the 6°C threshold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Munich on March 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 26?
6°C 56%
5°C 24%
7°C 11%
8°C 1.7%
$59,286 Vol.
$59,286 Vol.
4°C
<1%
5°C
24%
6°C
56%
7°C
11%
8°C
2%
9°C or higher
<1%
6°C 56%
5°C 24%
7°C 11%
8°C 1.7%
$59,286 Vol.
$59,286 Vol.
4°C
<1%
5°C
24%
6°C
56%
7°C
11%
8°C
2%
9°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor a Munich high of 6°C at 58% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD), which converge on a peak temperature in the 5–7°C range amid persistent high-pressure influence and cool northerly airflow. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours reflect weakening solar insolation due to extensive cloud cover and near-surface temperature observations from Munich Airport stations averaging 4–5°C yesterday, aligning with historical late-March climatology where highs rarely exceed 8°C under similar synoptic patterns. Lower odds for warmer outcomes stem from low shear and subsidence suppressing convective heating, while upcoming hourly guidance expected midday March 26 could refine resolution near the 6°C threshold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen