Trader consensus on Chengdu's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on March 20 stems from authoritative forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF, which converge on a daytime high of 22°C under a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing warmer advection. Historical March data for Chengdu shows average highs of 17-20°C, with recent observations confirming mild, dry conditions conducive to this precise outcome—sunny skies and light winds limiting extremes. This positioning reflects low model spread, with only 0.2% odds on warmer scenarios. Realistic challenges include sudden foehn winds from the Tibetan Plateau or unforecasted convective heating, though diurnal variability remains within ±1-2°C based on prior verification statistics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chengdu am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chengdu am 20. März?
22°C 100.0%
14°C oder niedriger <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
14°C oder niedriger
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Ja
23°C
Nein
24°C oder höher
Nein
22°C 100.0%
14°C oder niedriger <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
14°C oder niedriger
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Ja
23°C
Nein
24°C oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Chengdu's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on March 20 stems from authoritative forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF, which converge on a daytime high of 22°C under a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing warmer advection. Historical March data for Chengdu shows average highs of 17-20°C, with recent observations confirming mild, dry conditions conducive to this precise outcome—sunny skies and light winds limiting extremes. This positioning reflects low model spread, with only 0.2% odds on warmer scenarios. Realistic challenges include sudden foehn winds from the Tibetan Plateau or unforecasted convective heating, though diurnal variability remains within ±1-2°C based on prior verification statistics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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