The Polymarket trader consensus assigns a 97.3% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Ankara on March 26, reflecting strong alignment across latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project persistent cold northerly flow, overcast skies, and daytime highs capped at 10°C amid a broader Central Anatolian chill. Current observations confirm morning lows near 0°C with minimal insolation potential from weak high-pressure influence and high cloud cover. Ankara's March climatology typically sees maxes of 12-14°C, but this week's cold anomaly matches historical cool spells. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing or a southerly wind shift boosting solar heating, though model agreement holds firm pending final 24-hour updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
10°C 82.0%
11°C 25.5%
13°C 1.1%
12°C <1%
$152,926 Vol.
$152,926 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
82%
11°C
26%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
10°C 82.0%
11°C 25.5%
13°C 1.1%
12°C <1%
$152,926 Vol.
$152,926 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
82%
11°C
26%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Polymarket trader consensus assigns a 97.3% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Ankara on March 26, reflecting strong alignment across latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project persistent cold northerly flow, overcast skies, and daytime highs capped at 10°C amid a broader Central Anatolian chill. Current observations confirm morning lows near 0°C with minimal insolation potential from weak high-pressure influence and high cloud cover. Ankara's March climatology typically sees maxes of 12-14°C, but this week's cold anomaly matches historical cool spells. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing or a southerly wind shift boosting solar heating, though model agreement holds firm pending final 24-hour updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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