Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability on Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, reflecting deceleration from 2025's 2.3% annual expansion amid high Selic rates now easing cautiously. BBVA Research's March 20 outlook cites fading momentum, forecasting 1.5% full-year 2026 growth, while Banco Central do Brasil's March report holds at 1.6%, supported by January's IBC-Br proxy up 0.8% month-on-month and industrial production rising 1.8%. February manufacturing PMI at 47.3 signals contraction, tempering upside, with Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%—first in two years—balancing inflation slowdown against oil shocks. Official IBGE release expected in May could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 44%
1.9%–2.2% 19%
0.7%–1.0% 14%
≥2.7% 14%
$14,672 Vol.
$14,672 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
12%
0.7%–1.0%
14%
1.1%–1.4%
16%
1.5%–1.8%
44%
1.9%–2.2%
19%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
14%
1.5%–1.8% 44%
1.9%–2.2% 19%
0.7%–1.0% 14%
≥2.7% 14%
$14,672 Vol.
$14,672 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,181 Vol.
12%
0.7%–1.0%
$10 Vol.
14%
1.1%–1.4%
$20 Vol.
16%
1.5%–1.8%
$227 Vol.
44%
1.9%–2.2%
$63 Vol.
19%
2.3%–2.6%
$10 Vol.
18%
≥2.7%
$1,161 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability on Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, reflecting deceleration from 2025's 2.3% annual expansion amid high Selic rates now easing cautiously. BBVA Research's March 20 outlook cites fading momentum, forecasting 1.5% full-year 2026 growth, while Banco Central do Brasil's March report holds at 1.6%, supported by January's IBC-Br proxy up 0.8% month-on-month and industrial production rising 1.8%. February manufacturing PMI at 47.3 signals contraction, tempering upside, with Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%—first in two years—balancing inflation slowdown against oil shocks. Official IBGE release expected in May could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$14,672Enddatum
May 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability on Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, reflecting deceleration from 2025's 2.3% annual expansion amid high Selic rates now easing cautiously. BBVA Research's March 20 outlook cites fading momentum, forecasting 1.5% full-year 2026 growth, while Banco Central do Brasil's March report holds at 1.6%, supported by January's IBC-Br proxy up 0.8% month-on-month and industrial production rising 1.8%. February manufacturing PMI at 47.3 signals contraction, tempering upside, with Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%—first in two years—balancing inflation slowdown against oil shocks. Official IBGE release expected in May could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$14,672Enddatum
May 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability on Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, reflecting deceleration from 2025's 2.3% annual expansion amid high Selic rates now easing cautiously. BBVA Research's March 20 outlook cites fading momentum, forecasting 1.5% full-year 2026 growth, while Banco Central do Brasil's March report holds at 1.6%, supported by January's IBC-Br proxy up 0.8% month-on-month and industrial production rising 1.8%. February manufacturing PMI at 47.3 signals contraction, tempering upside, with Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75%—first in two years—balancing inflation slowdown against oil shocks. Official IBGE release expected in May could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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