Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Greenland—a Danish autonomous territory and NATO ally—at just 7.5% likelihood for 2026, driven by the absence of any official U.S. policy signals, military buildups, or diplomatic ruptures in recent months. The U.S. maintains cooperative strategic access via Thule Air Base under long-term agreements, prioritizing Arctic security amid competition with Russia and China over outright territorial aggression. Historical precedent, like the 2019 Trump administration's rejected purchase proposal, underscores diplomatic rebuffs without escalation to force. No developments in the past 30 days, including post-election foreign policy announcements, have altered this status quo, though hypothetical shifts like NATO tensions or Arctic resource disputes could theoretically move odds.