US AI models from Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-April 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503 Elo leading over top Chinese entries like Alibaba's Qwen (1449) and DeepSeek (1424), per Stanford's 2026 AI Index showing a narrowed but persistent 39-point gap. Recent Chinese advances, including Zhipu GLM-5.1 topping SWE-Bench Pro coding scores and jumping to #3 on LMArena Code while trained solely on Huawei chips amid US export controls, have fueled usage surges—six Chinese models in global top nine by tokens processed. However, ongoing US Commerce Department restrictions, including April proposals targeting chipmaking equipment sales to China, limit scaling compute for frontier training. Traders' 94.5% "No" consensus reflects skepticism on overtaking before June 30, despite imminent DeepSeek V4, given US firms' rapid iteration and historical base rates in leaderboard races.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$82,793 交易量
$82,793 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$82,793 交易量
$82,793 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.US AI models from Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-April 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503 Elo leading over top Chinese entries like Alibaba's Qwen (1449) and DeepSeek (1424), per Stanford's 2026 AI Index showing a narrowed but persistent 39-point gap. Recent Chinese advances, including Zhipu GLM-5.1 topping SWE-Bench Pro coding scores and jumping to #3 on LMArena Code while trained solely on Huawei chips amid US export controls, have fueled usage surges—six Chinese models in global top nine by tokens processed. However, ongoing US Commerce Department restrictions, including April proposals targeting chipmaking equipment sales to China, limit scaling compute for frontier training. Traders' 94.5% "No" consensus reflects skepticism on overtaking before June 30, despite imminent DeepSeek V4, given US firms' rapid iteration and historical base rates in leaderboard races.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 4:31 PM ET
交易量
$82,793结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.US AI models from Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-April 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503 Elo leading over top Chinese entries like Alibaba's Qwen (1449) and DeepSeek (1424), per Stanford's 2026 AI Index showing a narrowed but persistent 39-point gap. Recent Chinese advances, including Zhipu GLM-5.1 topping SWE-Bench Pro coding scores and jumping to #3 on LMArena Code while trained solely on Huawei chips amid US export controls, have fueled usage surges—six Chinese models in global top nine by tokens processed. However, ongoing US Commerce Department restrictions, including April proposals targeting chipmaking equipment sales to China, limit scaling compute for frontier training. Traders' 94.5% "No" consensus reflects skepticism on overtaking before June 30, despite imminent DeepSeek V4, given US firms' rapid iteration and historical base rates in leaderboard races.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$82,793结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US AI models from Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-April 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503 Elo leading over top Chinese entries like Alibaba's Qwen (1449) and DeepSeek (1424), per Stanford's 2026 AI Index showing a narrowed but persistent 39-point gap. Recent Chinese advances, including Zhipu GLM-5.1 topping SWE-Bench Pro coding scores and jumping to #3 on LMArena Code while trained solely on Huawei chips amid US export controls, have fueled usage surges—six Chinese models in global top nine by tokens processed. However, ongoing US Commerce Department restrictions, including April proposals targeting chipmaking equipment sales to China, limit scaling compute for frontier training. Traders' 94.5% "No" consensus reflects skepticism on overtaking before June 30, despite imminent DeepSeek V4, given US firms' rapid iteration and historical base rates in leaderboard races.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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