Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 78.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top with a commanding Elo rating above 1501—well ahead of rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (around 1503 in some snapshots but trailing overall) and xAI's Grok models. Anthropic's rapid shipping of features like voice mode, persistent memory, and superior performance in design-centric coding tasks has solidified its edge, with no major competitor releases in the past month. xAI (7%) and Google (6%) reflect bets on potential Grok or Gemini updates, while OpenAI's low 2.9% odds stem from GPT-5.x lagging in recent benchmarks; watch for pre-April announcements that could shift the closely tracked Elo standings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$638,254 交易量
$638,254 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
xAI
7%
6%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$638,254 交易量
$638,254 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,587 交易量
78%
xAI
$126,195 交易量
7%
$22,065 交易量
6%
OpenAI
$60,702 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$219,860 交易量
2%
Mistral
$61,424 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$6,416 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$58,259 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$6,267 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$24,700 交易量
1%
Amazon
$25,554 交易量
1%
Meituan
$5,889 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$5,337 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 78.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top with a commanding Elo rating above 1501—well ahead of rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (around 1503 in some snapshots but trailing overall) and xAI's Grok models. Anthropic's rapid shipping of features like voice mode, persistent memory, and superior performance in design-centric coding tasks has solidified its edge, with no major competitor releases in the past month. xAI (7%) and Google (6%) reflect bets on potential Grok or Gemini updates, while OpenAI's low 2.9% odds stem from GPT-5.x lagging in recent benchmarks; watch for pre-April announcements that could shift the closely tracked Elo standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
交易量
$638,254结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 78.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top with a commanding Elo rating above 1501—well ahead of rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (around 1503 in some snapshots but trailing overall) and xAI's Grok models. Anthropic's rapid shipping of features like voice mode, persistent memory, and superior performance in design-centric coding tasks has solidified its edge, with no major competitor releases in the past month. xAI (7%) and Google (6%) reflect bets on potential Grok or Gemini updates, while OpenAI's low 2.9% odds stem from GPT-5.x lagging in recent benchmarks; watch for pre-April announcements that could shift the closely tracked Elo standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$638,254结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 78.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top with a commanding Elo rating above 1501—well ahead of rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (around 1503 in some snapshots but trailing overall) and xAI's Grok models. Anthropic's rapid shipping of features like voice mode, persistent memory, and superior performance in design-centric coding tasks has solidified its edge, with no major competitor releases in the past month. xAI (7%) and Google (6%) reflect bets on potential Grok or Gemini updates, while OpenAI's low 2.9% odds stem from GPT-5.x lagging in recent benchmarks; watch for pre-April announcements that could shift the closely tracked Elo standings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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