The open SC-01 Republican primary, vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid, features a crowded field finalized after the March 30 filing deadline, with trader consensus splitting narrowly between State Rep. Mark Smith's 33.5% implied probability—bolstered by his legislative experience and leading fundraising ($601,000 raised, $514,000 cash on hand)—and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath's 31%, buoyed by military credentials appealing to the district's GOP base in this Trump +13 area. Dr. Sam McCown trails at 16.5% amid physician appeal, but absent public polls, the tight top reflects early campaign infrastructure and no dominant endorsements. Upcoming Q1 FEC reports, Trump signals, or initial surveys could create separation before the June 9 primary.