Jo Rae Perkins commands 60% trader consensus for the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 19, reflecting her strong name recognition from prior statewide runs, including the 2020 general election and a February switch from the 5th Congressional District race, positioning her as the base favorite in a crowded field. State Sen. David Brock Smith's March 3 campaign launch, highlighting public safety, addiction, and homelessness, has boosted him to 26% as a fresh legislative alternative amid coastal conservative appeal. Absent public polls or major endorsements, markets weigh Perkins' established presence against Smith's recent momentum, with turnout and last-minute shifts key in this low-information primary.