OpenAI's transition to a for-profit public benefit corporation, coupled with its staggering $852 billion valuation as of April 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability for no acquisition before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on sustained independence amid aggressive expansion. Recent moves, including the acquisition of Tomoro to launch a $4 billion AI deployment joint venture with private equity firms like TPG and Brookfield on May 11, plus eight smaller tuck-in deals in 2026 targeting developer tools, fintech, and media like TBPN, signal OpenAI prioritizing inorganic growth over sale. Microsoft's 27% stake remains capped at $38 billion in revenue share through 2030, preserving board control. While antitrust suits from Elon Musk or escalating compute costs could theoretically pressure a distress sale, no credible buyer exists at this scale, with IPO preparations more likely by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's transition to a for-profit public benefit corporation, coupled with its staggering $852 billion valuation as of April 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability for no acquisition before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on sustained independence amid aggressive expansion. Recent moves, including the acquisition of Tomoro to launch a $4 billion AI deployment joint venture with private equity firms like TPG and Brookfield on May 11, plus eight smaller tuck-in deals in 2026 targeting developer tools, fintech, and media like TBPN, signal OpenAI prioritizing inorganic growth over sale. Microsoft's 27% stake remains capped at $38 billion in revenue share through 2030, preserving board control. While antitrust suits from Elon Musk or escalating compute costs could theoretically pressure a distress sale, no credible buyer exists at this scale, with IPO preparations more likely by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ET
交易量
$3,239结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's transition to a for-profit public benefit corporation, coupled with its staggering $852 billion valuation as of April 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability for no acquisition before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on sustained independence amid aggressive expansion. Recent moves, including the acquisition of Tomoro to launch a $4 billion AI deployment joint venture with private equity firms like TPG and Brookfield on May 11, plus eight smaller tuck-in deals in 2026 targeting developer tools, fintech, and media like TBPN, signal OpenAI prioritizing inorganic growth over sale. Microsoft's 27% stake remains capped at $38 billion in revenue share through 2030, preserving board control. While antitrust suits from Elon Musk or escalating compute costs could theoretically pressure a distress sale, no credible buyer exists at this scale, with IPO preparations more likely by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$3,239结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's transition to a for-profit public benefit corporation, coupled with its staggering $852 billion valuation as of April 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability for no acquisition before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on sustained independence amid aggressive expansion. Recent moves, including the acquisition of Tomoro to launch a $4 billion AI deployment joint venture with private equity firms like TPG and Brookfield on May 11, plus eight smaller tuck-in deals in 2026 targeting developer tools, fintech, and media like TBPN, signal OpenAI prioritizing inorganic growth over sale. Microsoft's 27% stake remains capped at $38 billion in revenue share through 2030, preserving board control. While antitrust suits from Elon Musk or escalating compute costs could theoretically pressure a distress sale, no credible buyer exists at this scale, with IPO preparations more likely by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题