Google's October 1, 2026 launch of its Project Suncatcher prototype—carrying just four TPUs equivalent to a single server—marks the first major tech company test of orbital AI hardware, validating radiation tolerance and basic operation but falling far short of the 100+ accelerator threshold for market resolution. Starcloud has demonstrated single-GPU training in orbit and secured funding for larger constellations, while SpaceX eyes Starmind deployments potentially starting 2027-2028 alongside Blue Origin plans. These early steps reflect strong industry interest in solar-powered orbital compute to bypass terrestrial power limits, yet technical hurdles around cooling, high-bandwidth links, radiation hardening, and launch economics keep 2027 odds modest. Key catalysts ahead include Google's planned 2027 laser-link satellites and Starcloud's lunar-orbit payload.