Google’s successful October 1, 2026 launch of a refrigerator-sized prototype satellite carrying four Trillium TPUs under Project Suncatcher represents the most immediate catalyst, validating basic radiation tolerance, thermal management via heat pipes and radiators, and solar-powered operation in low Earth orbit. This small-scale test—equivalent to a single terrestrial server—falls well short of the 100+ data-center-grade accelerators required for market resolution, yet it signals accelerating momentum from Google, SpaceX, Starcloud, and others pursuing solar-powered orbital inference clusters. Competitive dynamics center on energy abundance in sun-synchronous orbits versus persistent hurdles in radiation hardening, inter-satellite laser links, launch cadence, and per-kilogram economics. Google plans a two-satellite follow-on mission in 2027, while Musk and Nvidia-backed efforts target larger demonstrations; traders weigh these timelines against historical slippage in complex aerospace projects and the capital intensity needed to reach qualifying scale by late 2027.