Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames such as Iris-alpha in OpenAI logs and Codex traces, combined with the rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence since its April 23 rollout, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch. Historical intervals between frontier model updates—averaging 45–60 days—align with the 51.5% implied probability for June 15–21, while lower odds on earlier or later windows reflect uncertainty around unconfirmed internal testing timelines. No official OpenAI statements or system cards exist yet, leaving the market pricing aggregated sentiment on rumored capabilities like expanded context windows rather than verified releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于June 15–June 21 52%
Not released by June 28 22%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
June 8–June 14 13%
$61,119 交易量
$61,119 交易量
2026-06-28
June 1–June 7
1%
June 8–June 14
13%
June 15–June 21
52%
June 22–June 28
16%
Not released by June 28
22%
June 15–June 21 52%
Not released by June 28 22%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
June 8–June 14 13%
$61,119 交易量
$61,119 交易量
2026-06-28
June 1–June 7
$12,151 交易量
1%
June 8–June 14
$10,672 交易量
13%
June 15–June 21
$2,611 交易量
52%
June 22–June 28
$2,001 交易量
16%
Not released by June 28
$6,608 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames such as Iris-alpha in OpenAI logs and Codex traces, combined with the rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence since its April 23 rollout, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch. Historical intervals between frontier model updates—averaging 45–60 days—align with the 51.5% implied probability for June 15–21, while lower odds on earlier or later windows reflect uncertainty around unconfirmed internal testing timelines. No official OpenAI statements or system cards exist yet, leaving the market pricing aggregated sentiment on rumored capabilities like expanded context windows rather than verified releases.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
交易量
$61,119结束日期
2026-06-28市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames such as Iris-alpha in OpenAI logs and Codex traces, combined with the rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence since its April 23 rollout, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch. Historical intervals between frontier model updates—averaging 45–60 days—align with the 51.5% implied probability for June 15–21, while lower odds on earlier or later windows reflect uncertainty around unconfirmed internal testing timelines. No official OpenAI statements or system cards exist yet, leaving the market pricing aggregated sentiment on rumored capabilities like expanded context windows rather than verified releases.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$61,119结束日期
2026-06-28市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames such as Iris-alpha in OpenAI logs and Codex traces, combined with the rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence since its April 23 rollout, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch. Historical intervals between frontier model updates—averaging 45–60 days—align with the 51.5% implied probability for June 15–21, while lower odds on earlier or later windows reflect uncertainty around unconfirmed internal testing timelines. No official OpenAI statements or system cards exist yet, leaving the market pricing aggregated sentiment on rumored capabilities like expanded context windows rather than verified releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题