Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于其他 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$112,354 交易量
$112,354 交易量
2026-08-10
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
否
claude-opus-4-6
否
claude-fable-5
否
其他
是
其他 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$112,354 交易量
$112,354 交易量
2026-08-10
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$35,597 交易量
否
claude-opus-4-6
$4,336 交易量
否
claude-fable-5
$12,266 交易量
否
其他
$60,155 交易量
是
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
交易量
$112,354结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$112,354结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题