Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash high and related variants sit just behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus and Fable models on the current Text Arena mathematical leaderboard, giving traders a modest edge in positioning the lab for second place by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Terra releases remain competitive in the same 1500-plus Elo band, keeping their implied probability nearly identical. Anthropic’s dominance across multiple top entries compresses its second-place odds despite strong overall math capabilities. Recent Gemini updates and GPT-5.6 iterations have narrowed gaps on live arena votes and related benchmarks such as AIME and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs trail further back. With only three weeks remaining, any new model drop or rapid Elo shift before September 30 could quickly reorder the tight three-way contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 39%
OpenAI 32.5%
Anthropic 22.9%
Alibaba 2.3%
$46,953 交易量
$46,953 交易量
2026-09-30
39%
OpenAI
32%
Anthropic
23%
Alibaba
2%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Google 39%
OpenAI 32.5%
Anthropic 22.9%
Alibaba 2.3%
$46,953 交易量
$46,953 交易量
2026-09-30
$14,613 交易量
39%
OpenAI
$5,409 交易量
32%
Anthropic
$4,181 交易量
23%
Alibaba
$5,579 交易量
2%
Meta
$1,147 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$1,185 交易量
1%
Baidu
$1,225 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$1,275 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$1,055 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$1,136 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,556 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,176 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,113 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,001 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,044 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$566 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$910 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,063 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$766 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$951 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash high and related variants sit just behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus and Fable models on the current Text Arena mathematical leaderboard, giving traders a modest edge in positioning the lab for second place by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Terra releases remain competitive in the same 1500-plus Elo band, keeping their implied probability nearly identical. Anthropic’s dominance across multiple top entries compresses its second-place odds despite strong overall math capabilities. Recent Gemini updates and GPT-5.6 iterations have narrowed gaps on live arena votes and related benchmarks such as AIME and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs trail further back. With only three weeks remaining, any new model drop or rapid Elo shift before September 30 could quickly reorder the tight three-way contest.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$46,953结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash high and related variants sit just behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus and Fable models on the current Text Arena mathematical leaderboard, giving traders a modest edge in positioning the lab for second place by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Terra releases remain competitive in the same 1500-plus Elo band, keeping their implied probability nearly identical. Anthropic’s dominance across multiple top entries compresses its second-place odds despite strong overall math capabilities. Recent Gemini updates and GPT-5.6 iterations have narrowed gaps on live arena votes and related benchmarks such as AIME and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs trail further back. With only three weeks remaining, any new model drop or rapid Elo shift before September 30 could quickly reorder the tight three-way contest.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$46,953结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETGoogle’s Gemini 3.8 Flash high and related variants sit just behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus and Fable models on the current Text Arena mathematical leaderboard, giving traders a modest edge in positioning the lab for second place by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Terra releases remain competitive in the same 1500-plus Elo band, keeping their implied probability nearly identical. Anthropic’s dominance across multiple top entries compresses its second-place odds despite strong overall math capabilities. Recent Gemini updates and GPT-5.6 iterations have narrowed gaps on live arena votes and related benchmarks such as AIME and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs trail further back. With only three weeks remaining, any new model drop or rapid Elo shift before September 30 could quickly reorder the tight three-way contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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