Recent releases have solidified trader consensus around "Other" at 99.7% implied probability. Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, now leads Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic Indexes while claiming top spots on coding and agent benchmarks, outpacing listed variants such as Opus 4.6 and Fable 5. GPT-5.6 family models and Gemini iterations also maintain strong specialized performance, fragmenting leadership across use cases. This positioning reflects verified benchmark gains and adoption data rather than speculation. A sudden shift could occur only if one of the named models receives an unexpected update or if resolution criteria narrow to a specific, unbenchmarked task where an older Claude variant excels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于其他 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$132,087 交易量
$132,087 交易量
2026-08-01
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
否
claude-opus-4-6
否
claude-fable-5
否
其他
是
其他 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$132,087 交易量
$132,087 交易量
2026-08-01
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$72,821 交易量
否
claude-opus-4-6
$7,247 交易量
否
claude-fable-5
$15,678 交易量
否
其他
$36,341 交易量
是
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases have solidified trader consensus around "Other" at 99.7% implied probability. Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, now leads Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic Indexes while claiming top spots on coding and agent benchmarks, outpacing listed variants such as Opus 4.6 and Fable 5. GPT-5.6 family models and Gemini iterations also maintain strong specialized performance, fragmenting leadership across use cases. This positioning reflects verified benchmark gains and adoption data rather than speculation. A sudden shift could occur only if one of the named models receives an unexpected update or if resolution criteria narrow to a specific, unbenchmarked task where an older Claude variant excels.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET
交易量
$132,087结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases have solidified trader consensus around "Other" at 99.7% implied probability. Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, now leads Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic Indexes while claiming top spots on coding and agent benchmarks, outpacing listed variants such as Opus 4.6 and Fable 5. GPT-5.6 family models and Gemini iterations also maintain strong specialized performance, fragmenting leadership across use cases. This positioning reflects verified benchmark gains and adoption data rather than speculation. A sudden shift could occur only if one of the named models receives an unexpected update or if resolution criteria narrow to a specific, unbenchmarked task where an older Claude variant excels.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$132,087结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Recent releases have solidified trader consensus around "Other" at 99.7% implied probability. Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, now leads Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic Indexes while claiming top spots on coding and agent benchmarks, outpacing listed variants such as Opus 4.6 and Fable 5. GPT-5.6 family models and Gemini iterations also maintain strong specialized performance, fragmenting leadership across use cases. This positioning reflects verified benchmark gains and adoption data rather than speculation. A sudden shift could occur only if one of the named models receives an unexpected update or if resolution criteria narrow to a specific, unbenchmarked task where an older Claude variant excels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题