Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by September 30, as Google holds a 35.5% implied probability edge while Meta sits at 26% and OpenAI at 12.8%. The even spread across many labs reflects rapid model iteration, where style control—testing precise output customization and consistency—narrows gaps between U.S. frontier labs and fast-moving Chinese developers like Alibaba. Recent releases emphasizing controllable generation and developer tools have kept rankings fluid, with differentiation hinging on benchmark scores rather than announcements alone. Resolution hinges on the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, leaving limited time for late surges or shifts from new capability demonstrations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谷歌 41%
Meta 26%
OpenAI 12.5%
阿里巴巴 2.7%
$94,721 交易量
$94,721 交易量
2026-09-30
谷歌
41%
Meta
26%
OpenAI
13%
阿里巴巴
3%
Moonshot
1%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
1%
百度
1%
字节跳动
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
腾讯
<1%
小米
<1%
美团
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
英伟达
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微软
<1%
谷歌 41%
Meta 26%
OpenAI 12.5%
阿里巴巴 2.7%
$94,721 交易量
$94,721 交易量
2026-09-30
谷歌
$15,143 交易量
41%
Meta
$25,549 交易量
26%
OpenAI
$3,661 交易量
13%
阿里巴巴
$9,206 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$2,711 交易量
1%
Anthropic
$20,287 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$1,572 交易量
1%
百度
$1,424 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$2,071 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,372 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$1,763 交易量
1%
Thinky
$1,395 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$1,414 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,315 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$1,250 交易量
<1%
小米
$818 交易量
<1%
美团
$799 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$480 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$659 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$700 交易量
<1%
微软
$1,134 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by September 30, as Google holds a 35.5% implied probability edge while Meta sits at 26% and OpenAI at 12.8%. The even spread across many labs reflects rapid model iteration, where style control—testing precise output customization and consistency—narrows gaps between U.S. frontier labs and fast-moving Chinese developers like Alibaba. Recent releases emphasizing controllable generation and developer tools have kept rankings fluid, with differentiation hinging on benchmark scores rather than announcements alone. Resolution hinges on the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, leaving limited time for late surges or shifts from new capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$94,721结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by September 30, as Google holds a 35.5% implied probability edge while Meta sits at 26% and OpenAI at 12.8%. The even spread across many labs reflects rapid model iteration, where style control—testing precise output customization and consistency—narrows gaps between U.S. frontier labs and fast-moving Chinese developers like Alibaba. Recent releases emphasizing controllable generation and developer tools have kept rankings fluid, with differentiation hinging on benchmark scores rather than announcements alone. Resolution hinges on the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, leaving limited time for late surges or shifts from new capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$94,721结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETTraders see a tightly contested race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by September 30, as Google holds a 35.5% implied probability edge while Meta sits at 26% and OpenAI at 12.8%. The even spread across many labs reflects rapid model iteration, where style control—testing precise output customization and consistency—narrows gaps between U.S. frontier labs and fast-moving Chinese developers like Alibaba. Recent releases emphasizing controllable generation and developer tools have kept rankings fluid, with differentiation hinging on benchmark scores rather than announcements alone. Resolution hinges on the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, leaving limited time for late surges or shifts from new capability demonstrations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题