Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Opus 5 on July 24 and the established Claude Fable 5, currently lead the Chatbot Arena leaderboard and multiple third-party indices such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic scores, driving the 93.5% market-implied probability. These models top coding, agentic, and professional-deliverables benchmarks with strong context windows and competitive pricing, reflecting sustained frontier performance through early August 2026. With resolution tied to the August 31 Arena overall score without style controls, the positioning rests on Anthropic’s present dominance. A credible new model launch or significant leaderboard surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the final weeks could still shift outcomes before settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 4.3%
谷歌 2.1%
Meta <1%
$1,458,635 交易量
$1,458,635 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
4%
谷歌
2%
Meta
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
小米
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
英伟达
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
腾讯
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微软
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 4.3%
谷歌 2.1%
Meta <1%
$1,458,635 交易量
$1,458,635 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$310,894 交易量
94%
OpenAI
$141,439 交易量
4%
谷歌
$118,210 交易量
2%
Meta
$134,540 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$125,044 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$104,710 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$119,653 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$116,169 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$86,996 交易量
<1%
百度
$15,026 交易量
<1%
小米
$11,003 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$9,772 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$88,723 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$11,459 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$12,838 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$23,156 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,345 交易量
<1%
美团
$3,797 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$4,357 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$4,987 交易量
<1%
微软
$11,518 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Opus 5 on July 24 and the established Claude Fable 5, currently lead the Chatbot Arena leaderboard and multiple third-party indices such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic scores, driving the 93.5% market-implied probability. These models top coding, agentic, and professional-deliverables benchmarks with strong context windows and competitive pricing, reflecting sustained frontier performance through early August 2026. With resolution tied to the August 31 Arena overall score without style controls, the positioning rests on Anthropic’s present dominance. A credible new model launch or significant leaderboard surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the final weeks could still shift outcomes before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,458,635结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Opus 5 on July 24 and the established Claude Fable 5, currently lead the Chatbot Arena leaderboard and multiple third-party indices such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic scores, driving the 93.5% market-implied probability. These models top coding, agentic, and professional-deliverables benchmarks with strong context windows and competitive pricing, reflecting sustained frontier performance through early August 2026. With resolution tied to the August 31 Arena overall score without style controls, the positioning rests on Anthropic’s present dominance. A credible new model launch or significant leaderboard surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the final weeks could still shift outcomes before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,458,635结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Opus 5 on July 24 and the established Claude Fable 5, currently lead the Chatbot Arena leaderboard and multiple third-party indices such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic scores, driving the 93.5% market-implied probability. These models top coding, agentic, and professional-deliverables benchmarks with strong context windows and competitive pricing, reflecting sustained frontier performance through early August 2026. With resolution tied to the August 31 Arena overall score without style controls, the positioning rests on Anthropic’s present dominance. A credible new model launch or significant leaderboard surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the final weeks could still shift outcomes before settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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