Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3 released in 2026, has driven recent trader sentiment by posting HLE scores in the high 40s to low 60s across public leaderboards, placing Meta models within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus variants while outperforming most GPT and Gemini entries. The benchmark’s rapid score inflation—from single digits at its early-2025 launch to mid-60% frontiers by September 2026—reflects accelerated reasoning gains across labs, yet Meta’s competitive but not dominant positioning leaves open the possibility of further lifts via new checkpoints, tool use, or fine-tuning before December 31. Traders weigh Meta’s release cadence and open-weight ecosystem against the risk that Anthropic or OpenAI could widen the gap with surprise updates in the final months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$55,079 交易量
2026-12-31
55%+
30%
60%+
25%
65%+
19%
70%及以上
7%
$55,079 交易量
55%+
$33,803 交易量
30%
60%+
$11,986 交易量
25%
65%+
$7,507 交易量
19%
70%及以上
$1,783 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3 released in 2026, has driven recent trader sentiment by posting HLE scores in the high 40s to low 60s across public leaderboards, placing Meta models within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus variants while outperforming most GPT and Gemini entries. The benchmark’s rapid score inflation—from single digits at its early-2025 launch to mid-60% frontiers by September 2026—reflects accelerated reasoning gains across labs, yet Meta’s competitive but not dominant positioning leaves open the possibility of further lifts via new checkpoints, tool use, or fine-tuning before December 31. Traders weigh Meta’s release cadence and open-weight ecosystem against the risk that Anthropic or OpenAI could widen the gap with surprise updates in the final months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$55,079结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3 released in 2026, has driven recent trader sentiment by posting HLE scores in the high 40s to low 60s across public leaderboards, placing Meta models within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus variants while outperforming most GPT and Gemini entries. The benchmark’s rapid score inflation—from single digits at its early-2025 launch to mid-60% frontiers by September 2026—reflects accelerated reasoning gains across labs, yet Meta’s competitive but not dominant positioning leaves open the possibility of further lifts via new checkpoints, tool use, or fine-tuning before December 31. Traders weigh Meta’s release cadence and open-weight ecosystem against the risk that Anthropic or OpenAI could widen the gap with surprise updates in the final months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$55,079结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETMeta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3 released in 2026, has driven recent trader sentiment by posting HLE scores in the high 40s to low 60s across public leaderboards, placing Meta models within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus variants while outperforming most GPT and Gemini entries. The benchmark’s rapid score inflation—from single digits at its early-2025 launch to mid-60% frontiers by September 2026—reflects accelerated reasoning gains across labs, yet Meta’s competitive but not dominant positioning leaves open the possibility of further lifts via new checkpoints, tool use, or fine-tuning before December 31. Traders weigh Meta’s release cadence and open-weight ecosystem against the risk that Anthropic or OpenAI could widen the gap with surprise updates in the final months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题