Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 in early June and Opus 4.8, have solidified its lead through top scores on SWE-Bench Verified (reaching 95%) and related agentic coding evaluations. Traders cite the models’ 1M-token context windows, strong performance in multi-file refactoring, long-horizon workflows, and real-world developer adoption via tools like Claude Code as decisive edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs. With only days remaining until end-of-June resolution, this benchmark dominance and ecosystem momentum underpin the 95.9% implied probability. A late surprise release or undisclosed capability jump from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though such shifts appear improbable given current trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$121,799 交易量
$121,799 交易量
2026-06-30
No
Alibaba
No
ByteDance
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Meta
No
Anthropic
Yes
OpenAI
No
xAI
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$121,799 交易量
$121,799 交易量
2026-06-30
$12,215 交易量
No
Alibaba
$10,563 交易量
No
ByteDance
$1,844 交易量
No
Moonshot
$11,689 交易量
No
Z.ai
$17,450 交易量
No
DeepSeek
$9,105 交易量
No
Meta
$747 交易量
No
Anthropic
$19,314 交易量
Yes
OpenAI
$17,235 交易量
No
xAI
$14,341 交易量
No
Baidu
$868 交易量
No
Amazon
$894 交易量
No
Mistral
$1,058 交易量
No
Meituan
$870 交易量
No
Microsoft
$3,607 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 in early June and Opus 4.8, have solidified its lead through top scores on SWE-Bench Verified (reaching 95%) and related agentic coding evaluations. Traders cite the models’ 1M-token context windows, strong performance in multi-file refactoring, long-horizon workflows, and real-world developer adoption via tools like Claude Code as decisive edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs. With only days remaining until end-of-June resolution, this benchmark dominance and ecosystem momentum underpin the 95.9% implied probability. A late surprise release or undisclosed capability jump from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though such shifts appear improbable given current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
交易量
$121,799结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 in early June and Opus 4.8, have solidified its lead through top scores on SWE-Bench Verified (reaching 95%) and related agentic coding evaluations. Traders cite the models’ 1M-token context windows, strong performance in multi-file refactoring, long-horizon workflows, and real-world developer adoption via tools like Claude Code as decisive edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs. With only days remaining until end-of-June resolution, this benchmark dominance and ecosystem momentum underpin the 95.9% implied probability. A late surprise release or undisclosed capability jump from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though such shifts appear improbable given current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$121,799结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 in early June and Opus 4.8, have solidified its lead through top scores on SWE-Bench Verified (reaching 95%) and related agentic coding evaluations. Traders cite the models’ 1M-token context windows, strong performance in multi-file refactoring, long-horizon workflows, and real-world developer adoption via tools like Claude Code as decisive edges over OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs. With only days remaining until end-of-June resolution, this benchmark dominance and ecosystem momentum underpin the 95.9% implied probability. A late surprise release or undisclosed capability jump from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though such shifts appear improbable given current trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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