Anthropic's Claude series, including recent variants like Fable 5 and Opus 4.8, currently tops multiple independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and intelligence benchmarks, reflecting strong recent releases and iterative improvements in adaptive capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro remain close contenders, with ongoing updates narrowing gaps in areas like agentic performance and multimodal tasks. Traders are watching for new frontier model drops, benchmark refreshes, and competitive positioning through the second half of the year, as historical patterns show rapid shifts from major labs. Regulatory developments around AI safety and enterprise adoption could also influence which company sustains the top spot through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,523 交易量
2026-12-31
47%
OpenAI
36%
Meta
15%
xAI
14%
ByteDance
10%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Amazon
9%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
9%
Baidu
9%
Mistral
7%
Meituan
7%
$34,523 交易量
$8,102 交易量
47%
OpenAI
$6,944 交易量
36%
Meta
$2,307 交易量
15%
xAI
$4,720 交易量
14%
ByteDance
$2,121 交易量
10%
DeepSeek
$939 交易量
10%
Microsoft
$2,154 交易量
10%
Amazon
$1,164 交易量
9%
Alibaba
$177 交易量
9%
Moonshot
$452 交易量
9%
Z.ai
$901 交易量
9%
Baidu
$389 交易量
9%
Mistral
$2,612 交易量
7%
Meituan
$1,542 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude series, including recent variants like Fable 5 and Opus 4.8, currently tops multiple independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and intelligence benchmarks, reflecting strong recent releases and iterative improvements in adaptive capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro remain close contenders, with ongoing updates narrowing gaps in areas like agentic performance and multimodal tasks. Traders are watching for new frontier model drops, benchmark refreshes, and competitive positioning through the second half of the year, as historical patterns show rapid shifts from major labs. Regulatory developments around AI safety and enterprise adoption could also influence which company sustains the top spot through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
交易量
$34,523结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude series, including recent variants like Fable 5 and Opus 4.8, currently tops multiple independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and intelligence benchmarks, reflecting strong recent releases and iterative improvements in adaptive capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro remain close contenders, with ongoing updates narrowing gaps in areas like agentic performance and multimodal tasks. Traders are watching for new frontier model drops, benchmark refreshes, and competitive positioning through the second half of the year, as historical patterns show rapid shifts from major labs. Regulatory developments around AI safety and enterprise adoption could also influence which company sustains the top spot through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$34,523结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude series, including recent variants like Fable 5 and Opus 4.8, currently tops multiple independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and intelligence benchmarks, reflecting strong recent releases and iterative improvements in adaptive capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro remain close contenders, with ongoing updates narrowing gaps in areas like agentic performance and multimodal tasks. Traders are watching for new frontier model drops, benchmark refreshes, and competitive positioning through the second half of the year, as historical patterns show rapid shifts from major labs. Regulatory developments around AI safety and enterprise adoption could also influence which company sustains the top spot through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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