Google’s Google I/O conference opening today drives the near-certain trader consensus around a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, the latest iteration in the company’s large language model lineup. Recent leaks of model identifiers in AI Studio logs, Gemini app metadata, and LM Arena benchmarks mirror the exact pattern that preceded the February 19 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro, while insiders indicate a Flash variant optimized for speed and multimodal tasks will debut without a new Pro model. This fits Google’s stepped-up cadence of smaller, frequent updates aimed at narrowing gaps with OpenAI and Anthropic systems. A last-minute delay from integration issues or a shift to a May 20 announcement at the event remain the only realistic ways the market could move.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 19 100.0%
On or prior to May 6 <1%
May 7 <1%
May 8 <1%
$573,233 交易量
$573,233 交易量
2026-05-31
On or prior to May 6
No
May 7
No
May 8
No
May 9
No
May 10
No
May 11
No
May 12
No
May 13
No
May 14
No
May 15
No
May 16
No
May 17
No
May 18
No
May 19
Yes
May 20
No
May 21
No
May 22
No
May 23
No
May 24
No
May 25
No
May 26
No
May 27
No
May 28
No
May 29
No
May 30
No
May 31
No
No release by May 31
No
May 19 100.0%
On or prior to May 6 <1%
May 7 <1%
May 8 <1%
$573,233 交易量
$573,233 交易量
2026-05-31
On or prior to May 6
$1,436 交易量
No
May 7
$794 交易量
No
May 8
$810 交易量
No
May 9
$2,787 交易量
No
May 10
$3,902 交易量
No
May 11
$9,023 交易量
No
May 12
$8,126 交易量
No
May 13
$3,373 交易量
No
May 14
$3,770 交易量
No
May 15
$7,549 交易量
No
May 16
$7,921 交易量
No
May 17
$17,939 交易量
No
May 18
$83,924 交易量
No
May 19
$254,109 交易量
Yes
May 20
$38,470 交易量
No
May 21
$29,024 交易量
No
May 22
$17,548 交易量
No
May 23
$5,915 交易量
No
May 24
$5,906 交易量
No
May 25
$4,317 交易量
No
May 26
$5,547 交易量
No
May 27
$8,238 交易量
No
May 28
$7,560 交易量
No
May 29
$3,395 交易量
No
May 30
$7,228 交易量
No
May 31
$6,604 交易量
No
No release by May 31
$28,020 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s Google I/O conference opening today drives the near-certain trader consensus around a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, the latest iteration in the company’s large language model lineup. Recent leaks of model identifiers in AI Studio logs, Gemini app metadata, and LM Arena benchmarks mirror the exact pattern that preceded the February 19 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro, while insiders indicate a Flash variant optimized for speed and multimodal tasks will debut without a new Pro model. This fits Google’s stepped-up cadence of smaller, frequent updates aimed at narrowing gaps with OpenAI and Anthropic systems. A last-minute delay from integration issues or a shift to a May 20 announcement at the event remain the only realistic ways the market could move.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$573,233结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s Google I/O conference opening today drives the near-certain trader consensus around a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, the latest iteration in the company’s large language model lineup. Recent leaks of model identifiers in AI Studio logs, Gemini app metadata, and LM Arena benchmarks mirror the exact pattern that preceded the February 19 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro, while insiders indicate a Flash variant optimized for speed and multimodal tasks will debut without a new Pro model. This fits Google’s stepped-up cadence of smaller, frequent updates aimed at narrowing gaps with OpenAI and Anthropic systems. A last-minute delay from integration issues or a shift to a May 20 announcement at the event remain the only realistic ways the market could move.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$573,233结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Google’s Google I/O conference opening today drives the near-certain trader consensus around a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, the latest iteration in the company’s large language model lineup. Recent leaks of model identifiers in AI Studio logs, Gemini app metadata, and LM Arena benchmarks mirror the exact pattern that preceded the February 19 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro, while insiders indicate a Flash variant optimized for speed and multimodal tasks will debut without a new Pro model. This fits Google’s stepped-up cadence of smaller, frequent updates aimed at narrowing gaps with OpenAI and Anthropic systems. A last-minute delay from integration issues or a shift to a May 20 announcement at the event remain the only realistic ways the market could move.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题