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在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？

Market icon

在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？

Dec 31

Dec 31

欧尔班 - 匈牙利总理 55%

迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统 18%

内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理 6.4%

斯塔默 - 英国首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,743,115 交易量

欧尔班 - 匈牙利总理 55%

迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统 18%

内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理 6.4%

斯塔默 - 英国首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,743,115 交易量

欧尔班 - 匈牙利总理

$22,262 交易量

55%

迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统

$16,258 交易量

18%

内塔尼亚胡 - 以色列总理

$572,763 交易量

6%

斯塔默 - 英国首相

$557,561 交易量

5%

高市早苗 - 日本首相

$276,699 交易量

3%

普京 - 俄罗斯总统

$350,842 交易量

2%

佩特罗 - 哥伦比亚总统

$12,796 交易量

1%

泽连斯基 - 乌克兰总统

$11,283 交易量

1%

2027年之前没有

$10,160 交易量

1%

特朗普 - 美国总统

$203,958 交易量

1%

马克龙 - 法国总统

$68,153 交易量

1%

阿巴斯——巴勒斯坦总统

$58,322 交易量

1%

习近平 - 中共中央总书记

$39,624 交易量

1%

桑切斯 - 西班牙首相

$11,319 交易量

1%

纽森 - 加利福尼亚州州长

$113,329 交易量

1%

埃尔多安 - 土耳其总统

$75,740 交易量

1%

勒科尔努 - 法国总理

$40,635 交易量

1%

罗德里格斯 - 委内瑞拉代理总统

$20,663 交易量

1%

米莱 - 阿根廷总统

$35,523 交易量

<1%

卢拉·达席尔瓦 - 巴西总统

$40,102 交易量

<1%

谢恩鲍姆 - 墨西哥总统

$64,527 交易量

<1%

沙拉 - 叙利亚总统

$28,196 交易量

<1%

金正恩 - 朝鲜最高领导人

$24,997 交易量

<1%

梅尔茨 - 德国总理

$28,784 交易量

<1%

阿尔巴尼斯 - 澳大利亚总理

$58,620 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54.5% to exit power before 2027, reflecting Fidesz's setbacks in June 2024 municipal elections, persistent EU fund freezes over rule-of-law disputes, and declining approval ratings amid inflation and corruption probes. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, pressured by nationwide blackouts and economic collapse fueling protests since October 2024, though regime stability remains entrenched. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% odds stem from his fragile coalition amid prolonged Gaza conflict, recent no-confidence motions, and hostage talks, with elections due by late 2025. UK PM Keir Starmer's low 4.7% highlights his recent election mandate despite early policy backlash. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but scheduled parliamentary sessions and diplomatic developments could catalyze changes.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,743,115
结束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

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This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54.5% to exit power before 2027, reflecting Fidesz's setbacks in June 2024 municipal elections, persistent EU fund freezes over rule-of-law disputes, and declining approval ratings amid inflation and corruption probes. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, pressured by nationwide blackouts and economic collapse fueling protests since October 2024, though regime stability remains entrenched. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% odds stem from his fragile coalition amid prolonged Gaza conflict, recent no-confidence motions, and hostage talks, with elections due by late 2025. UK PM Keir Starmer's low 4.7% highlights his recent election mandate despite early policy backlash. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but scheduled parliamentary sessions and diplomatic developments could catalyze changes.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54.5% to exit power before 2027, reflecting Fidesz's setbacks in June 2024 municipal elections, persistent EU fund freezes over rule-of-law disputes, and declining approval ratings amid inflation and corruption probes. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, pressured by nationwide blackouts and economic collapse fueling protests since October 2024, though regime stability remains entrenched. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% odds stem from his fragile coalition amid prolonged Gaza conflict, recent no-confidence motions, and hostage talks, with elections due by late 2025. UK PM Keir Starmer's low 4.7% highlights his recent election mandate despite early policy backlash. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but scheduled parliamentary sessions and diplomatic developments could catalyze changes.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 25 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"欧尔班 - 匈牙利总理"，概率为 55%，其次是"迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统"，概率为 18%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 55¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 55%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？"已产生 $2.7 million 的总交易量（自Mar 3, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 25 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？"的当前领先者是"欧尔班 - 匈牙利总理"，概率为 55%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 55%。紧随其后的结果是"迪亚斯-卡内尔 - 古巴总统"，概率为 18%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"在2027年之前失去权力的下一任领导人？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。