Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, driven by the alliance's treaty structure requiring unanimous member consent for disbandment—a near-impossible threshold amid ongoing Russian threats in Ukraine and Baltic deterrence needs. Recent U.S. demands under President Trump, including a December 2025 ultimatum for Europe to assume most conventional defense roles like intelligence and missiles by 2027, have fueled rhetoric of partial withdrawal, yet no formal Article 13 notice has been issued. Tensions escalated last week over allied reluctance to police the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran-Israel conflict, but NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on April 10 that the world is safer thanks to U.S. leadership, with allies pledging 5% GDP defense spending by 2035. Structural resilience and burden-sharing progress outweigh dissolution risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$72,312 交易量
$72,312 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$72,312 交易量
$72,312 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, driven by the alliance's treaty structure requiring unanimous member consent for disbandment—a near-impossible threshold amid ongoing Russian threats in Ukraine and Baltic deterrence needs. Recent U.S. demands under President Trump, including a December 2025 ultimatum for Europe to assume most conventional defense roles like intelligence and missiles by 2027, have fueled rhetoric of partial withdrawal, yet no formal Article 13 notice has been issued. Tensions escalated last week over allied reluctance to police the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran-Israel conflict, but NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on April 10 that the world is safer thanks to U.S. leadership, with allies pledging 5% GDP defense spending by 2035. Structural resilience and burden-sharing progress outweigh dissolution risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
交易量
$72,312结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, driven by the alliance's treaty structure requiring unanimous member consent for disbandment—a near-impossible threshold amid ongoing Russian threats in Ukraine and Baltic deterrence needs. Recent U.S. demands under President Trump, including a December 2025 ultimatum for Europe to assume most conventional defense roles like intelligence and missiles by 2027, have fueled rhetoric of partial withdrawal, yet no formal Article 13 notice has been issued. Tensions escalated last week over allied reluctance to police the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran-Israel conflict, but NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on April 10 that the world is safer thanks to U.S. leadership, with allies pledging 5% GDP defense spending by 2035. Structural resilience and burden-sharing progress outweigh dissolution risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$72,312结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, driven by the alliance's treaty structure requiring unanimous member consent for disbandment—a near-impossible threshold amid ongoing Russian threats in Ukraine and Baltic deterrence needs. Recent U.S. demands under President Trump, including a December 2025 ultimatum for Europe to assume most conventional defense roles like intelligence and missiles by 2027, have fueled rhetoric of partial withdrawal, yet no formal Article 13 notice has been issued. Tensions escalated last week over allied reluctance to police the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran-Israel conflict, but NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on April 10 that the world is safer thanks to U.S. leadership, with allies pledging 5% GDP defense spending by 2035. Structural resilience and burden-sharing progress outweigh dissolution risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题