Ryan Zinke's decision not to seek re-election has turned Montana's 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district rated R+5 by the Cook Political Report. The June 2 primary features a four-way Republican field including Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and Albert Olszewski, while Democrats are led by Ryan Busse, the party's 2024 gubernatorial nominee, alongside three other challengers. This setup keeps implied probabilities nearly even, as traders weigh the structural Republican lean against Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman and the risk of a divided GOP nominee heading into November. Upcoming primary results and general-election polling will likely determine whether one party pulls ahead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
55%
民主党
54%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$1,011 交易量
55%
民主党
$392 交易量
54%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ryan Zinke's decision not to seek re-election has turned Montana's 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district rated R+5 by the Cook Political Report. The June 2 primary features a four-way Republican field including Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and Albert Olszewski, while Democrats are led by Ryan Busse, the party's 2024 gubernatorial nominee, alongside three other challengers. This setup keeps implied probabilities nearly even, as traders weigh the structural Republican lean against Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman and the risk of a divided GOP nominee heading into November. Upcoming primary results and general-election polling will likely determine whether one party pulls ahead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$1,402结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ryan Zinke's decision not to seek re-election has turned Montana's 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district rated R+5 by the Cook Political Report. The June 2 primary features a four-way Republican field including Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and Albert Olszewski, while Democrats are led by Ryan Busse, the party's 2024 gubernatorial nominee, alongside three other challengers. This setup keeps implied probabilities nearly even, as traders weigh the structural Republican lean against Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman and the risk of a divided GOP nominee heading into November. Upcoming primary results and general-election polling will likely determine whether one party pulls ahead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,402结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ryan Zinke's decision not to seek re-election has turned Montana's 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district rated R+5 by the Cook Political Report. The June 2 primary features a four-way Republican field including Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and Albert Olszewski, while Democrats are led by Ryan Busse, the party's 2024 gubernatorial nominee, alongside three other challengers. This setup keeps implied probabilities nearly even, as traders weigh the structural Republican lean against Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman and the risk of a divided GOP nominee heading into November. Upcoming primary results and general-election polling will likely determine whether one party pulls ahead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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