Republican Aaron Flint holds a clear edge in the open-seat race for Montana’s 1st congressional district, with traders assigning him a 65.5% implied probability against Democrat Sam Forstag’s 34.5%. The district’s modest Republican tilt, reflected in its 2024 performance and voter composition across western counties, underpins the positioning. Late-September polling showed a virtual tie, with independent surveys giving Flint a narrow lead and a Democratic poll showing Forstag ahead by three points; forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Republican. A candidate forum on October 8 featured direct clashes on affordability, energy policy, and taxes, while Forstag’s cross-aisle endorsements and union background have kept the race competitive. With early voting underway and Election Day three weeks away, small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could still alter the outcome.