The competitive race for Montana’s open 1st congressional seat features Republican Aaron Flint holding a trader consensus edge over Democrat Sam Forstag, driven by the district’s historical Republican lean, Flint’s Trump endorsement, and substantial outside spending from Republican-aligned groups. Late September polling averages showed the candidates essentially tied or separated by a point or less, with Flint ahead in some surveys of likely voters. Both campaigns have focused on contrasting records, including attacks over lobbying, taxes, and public lands, while early voting has begun ahead of the November 3 general election. Upcoming events such as a scheduled debate and potential additional Republican support could influence final turnout in this swing district.