Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Charles Booker (78.5%) as the Kentucky Democratic Senate primary winner for the 2026 race against incumbent Mitch McConnell, driven by his early campaign launch in April 2024 and robust grassroots fundraising exceeding $1 million shortly after, building on his strong 2020 primary showing where he captured 43% against Amy McGrath. McGrath (18.5%) trails despite name recognition from her 2020 general election run, as traders view her past loss diminishing her frontrunner status. Minor candidates like Pamela Stevenson hold low odds amid Booker's lead in early internal polling and endorsements from progressive groups. No major developments in the past week, with the May 2026 primary still distant; watch for additional filings and debate schedules.