Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 IRGC Navy vessels and key commanders, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—around 5% for March 30 and rising modestly into April—for Iranian forces to conduct a verified kinetic strike or seize a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz on specific dates. Iran maintains de facto influence through warnings, as on March 27 when IRGC forces turned back three container ships near Larak Island, and an unconfirmed drone claim against a US vessel on March 28. No successful hits have occurred since early March incidents, amid US deadline extensions for strait reopening. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 28 with a missile strike on Israel, heightening Red Sea shipping risks, while potential US raids on Iranian uranium sites loom as escalation catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$96,428 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 27
1%
March 28
2%
March 29
3%
March 30
4%
March 31
3%
$96,428 交易量
March 27
$21,688 交易量
1%
March 28
$7,410 交易量
2%
March 29
$8,170 交易量
3%
March 30
$7,976 交易量
4%
March 31
$1,385 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 IRGC Navy vessels and key commanders, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—around 5% for March 30 and rising modestly into April—for Iranian forces to conduct a verified kinetic strike or seize a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz on specific dates. Iran maintains de facto influence through warnings, as on March 27 when IRGC forces turned back three container ships near Larak Island, and an unconfirmed drone claim against a US vessel on March 28. No successful hits have occurred since early March incidents, amid US deadline extensions for strait reopening. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 28 with a missile strike on Israel, heightening Red Sea shipping risks, while potential US raids on Iranian uranium sites loom as escalation catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$96,428结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 IRGC Navy vessels and key commanders, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—around 5% for March 30 and rising modestly into April—for Iranian forces to conduct a verified kinetic strike or seize a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz on specific dates. Iran maintains de facto influence through warnings, as on March 27 when IRGC forces turned back three container ships near Larak Island, and an unconfirmed drone claim against a US vessel on March 28. No successful hits have occurred since early March incidents, amid US deadline extensions for strait reopening. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 28 with a missile strike on Israel, heightening Red Sea shipping risks, while potential US raids on Iranian uranium sites loom as escalation catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$96,428结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 IRGC Navy vessels and key commanders, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—around 5% for March 30 and rising modestly into April—for Iranian forces to conduct a verified kinetic strike or seize a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz on specific dates. Iran maintains de facto influence through warnings, as on March 27 when IRGC forces turned back three container ships near Larak Island, and an unconfirmed drone claim against a US vessel on March 28. No successful hits have occurred since early March incidents, amid US deadline extensions for strait reopening. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 28 with a missile strike on Israel, heightening Red Sea shipping risks, while potential US raids on Iranian uranium sites loom as escalation catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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