Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted late February 2026, Iranian forces deliberately targeted at least two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11—Safesea Vishnu and Mayuree Naree—prompting Human Rights Watch to label the strikes apparent war crimes and disrupting a fifth of global oil flows. Over the past week, no further confirmed Iranian hits have materialized despite Hormuz closures, while Iran-backed Houthis threatened March 26 to resume Red Sea attacks via Bab al-Mandeb Strait using anti-ship missiles, drones, and uncrewed vessels if escalation demands, per US maritime warnings. Traders weigh defensive successes by US-led coalitions against potential Houthi openings or Iranian reprisals ahead of April deadlines, underscoring uncertain maritime escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$82,723 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
1%
March 26
1%
March 27
9%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
8%
March 31
2%
$82,723 交易量
March 25
$30,543 交易量
1%
March 26
$5,926 交易量
1%
March 27
$16,139 交易量
9%
March 28
$6,836 交易量
2%
March 29
$7,423 交易量
5%
March 30
$7,933 交易量
8%
March 31
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted late February 2026, Iranian forces deliberately targeted at least two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11—Safesea Vishnu and Mayuree Naree—prompting Human Rights Watch to label the strikes apparent war crimes and disrupting a fifth of global oil flows. Over the past week, no further confirmed Iranian hits have materialized despite Hormuz closures, while Iran-backed Houthis threatened March 26 to resume Red Sea attacks via Bab al-Mandeb Strait using anti-ship missiles, drones, and uncrewed vessels if escalation demands, per US maritime warnings. Traders weigh defensive successes by US-led coalitions against potential Houthi openings or Iranian reprisals ahead of April deadlines, underscoring uncertain maritime escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$82,723结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted late February 2026, Iranian forces deliberately targeted at least two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11—Safesea Vishnu and Mayuree Naree—prompting Human Rights Watch to label the strikes apparent war crimes and disrupting a fifth of global oil flows. Over the past week, no further confirmed Iranian hits have materialized despite Hormuz closures, while Iran-backed Houthis threatened March 26 to resume Red Sea attacks via Bab al-Mandeb Strait using anti-ship missiles, drones, and uncrewed vessels if escalation demands, per US maritime warnings. Traders weigh defensive successes by US-led coalitions against potential Houthi openings or Iranian reprisals ahead of April deadlines, underscoring uncertain maritime escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$82,723结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted late February 2026, Iranian forces deliberately targeted at least two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11—Safesea Vishnu and Mayuree Naree—prompting Human Rights Watch to label the strikes apparent war crimes and disrupting a fifth of global oil flows. Over the past week, no further confirmed Iranian hits have materialized despite Hormuz closures, while Iran-backed Houthis threatened March 26 to resume Red Sea attacks via Bab al-Mandeb Strait using anti-ship missiles, drones, and uncrewed vessels if escalation demands, per US maritime warnings. Traders weigh defensive successes by US-led coalitions against potential Houthi openings or Iranian reprisals ahead of April deadlines, underscoring uncertain maritime escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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