Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds a commanding 72% implied probability as trader consensus for the IN-04 Republican Primary winner on May 7, driven by his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $600,000, and consistent polling leads in this safely Republican district spanning central Indiana. Recent Emerson College polling (late March) showed Baird at 52% against challenger Craig Haggard's 18%, reflecting limited traction for Haggard's campaign despite appeals to Trump-aligned voters criticizing Baird's bipartisan votes on issues like infrastructure. John Piper trails at negligible 0.6% with minimal visibility. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on early voting turnout and final endorsements ahead of the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Jim Baird 91%
Craig Haggard 11%
John Piper <1%
NEW
NEW
May 5, 2026
Jim Baird
71%
Craig Haggard
11%
John Piper
1%
Jim Baird 91%
Craig Haggard 11%
John Piper <1%
NEW
NEW
May 5, 2026
Jim Baird
$0 交易量
71%
Craig Haggard
$277 交易量
11%
John Piper
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds a commanding 72% implied probability as trader consensus for the IN-04 Republican Primary winner on May 7, driven by his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $600,000, and consistent polling leads in this safely Republican district spanning central Indiana. Recent Emerson College polling (late March) showed Baird at 52% against challenger Craig Haggard's 18%, reflecting limited traction for Haggard's campaign despite appeals to Trump-aligned voters criticizing Baird's bipartisan votes on issues like infrastructure. John Piper trails at negligible 0.6% with minimal visibility. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on early voting turnout and final endorsements ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
交易量
$277结束日期
May 5, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds a commanding 72% implied probability as trader consensus for the IN-04 Republican Primary winner on May 7, driven by his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $600,000, and consistent polling leads in this safely Republican district spanning central Indiana. Recent Emerson College polling (late March) showed Baird at 52% against challenger Craig Haggard's 18%, reflecting limited traction for Haggard's campaign despite appeals to Trump-aligned voters criticizing Baird's bipartisan votes on issues like infrastructure. John Piper trails at negligible 0.6% with minimal visibility. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on early voting turnout and final endorsements ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$277结束日期
May 5, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds a commanding 72% implied probability as trader consensus for the IN-04 Republican Primary winner on May 7, driven by his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $600,000, and consistent polling leads in this safely Republican district spanning central Indiana. Recent Emerson College polling (late March) showed Baird at 52% against challenger Craig Haggard's 18%, reflecting limited traction for Haggard's campaign despite appeals to Trump-aligned voters criticizing Baird's bipartisan votes on issues like infrastructure. John Piper trails at negligible 0.6% with minimal visibility. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on early voting turnout and final endorsements ahead of the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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