Israel's airstrikes and ground operations in March have targeted only three countries—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to price exactly three at 80% implied probability. Recent developments include intensified IDF strikes in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah amid cross-border exchanges, daily operations in Gaza targeting Hamas, and Syrian airstrikes such as the March 27 Damascus attack killing senior IRGC commanders, confirming activity across these fronts without expansion. The 19% odds on four or more reflect low but nonzero risks of escalation to Yemen (following Houthi missile barrages) or Iran, though no verified strikes there have materialized. With March's end approaching, the resolution window limits further shifts absent major provocations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$271,379 交易量
$271,379 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3
81%
≥4
19%
$271,379 交易量
$271,379 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3
$72,950 交易量
81%
≥4
$169,243 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes and ground operations in March have targeted only three countries—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to price exactly three at 80% implied probability. Recent developments include intensified IDF strikes in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah amid cross-border exchanges, daily operations in Gaza targeting Hamas, and Syrian airstrikes such as the March 27 Damascus attack killing senior IRGC commanders, confirming activity across these fronts without expansion. The 19% odds on four or more reflect low but nonzero risks of escalation to Yemen (following Houthi missile barrages) or Iran, though no verified strikes there have materialized. With March's end approaching, the resolution window limits further shifts absent major provocations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$271,379结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes and ground operations in March have targeted only three countries—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to price exactly three at 80% implied probability. Recent developments include intensified IDF strikes in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah amid cross-border exchanges, daily operations in Gaza targeting Hamas, and Syrian airstrikes such as the March 27 Damascus attack killing senior IRGC commanders, confirming activity across these fronts without expansion. The 19% odds on four or more reflect low but nonzero risks of escalation to Yemen (following Houthi missile barrages) or Iran, though no verified strikes there have materialized. With March's end approaching, the resolution window limits further shifts absent major provocations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$271,379结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israel's airstrikes and ground operations in March have targeted only three countries—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to price exactly three at 80% implied probability. Recent developments include intensified IDF strikes in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah amid cross-border exchanges, daily operations in Gaza targeting Hamas, and Syrian airstrikes such as the March 27 Damascus attack killing senior IRGC commanders, confirming activity across these fronts without expansion. The 19% odds on four or more reflect low but nonzero risks of escalation to Yemen (following Houthi missile barrages) or Iran, though no verified strikes there have materialized. With March's end approaching, the resolution window limits further shifts absent major provocations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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