Fernando Dias da Costa leads the market at 38.1% due to his role as the leading opposition challenger in the disputed November 2025 presidential vote, where he received backing from the barred PAIGC after the Supreme Court excluded its candidates. A military coup days later suspended results and removed incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who now trades at just 3.5% amid exile and the shift to a transitional government. Siga Batista holds second place at 10.1% on legislative networks, while the rest of the field stays fragmented below 4%. ECOWAS-mediated transition talks and the December 2026 election timeline keep focus on potential opposition consolidation and institutional reforms.