Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at its March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February inflation data and resilient labor market conditions that have solidified expectations for prolonged steady policy. CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year—above the 3.1% forecast—while core CPI remained at 3.8%, and nonfarm payrolls surged 275,000 in February versus 200,000 anticipated. Fed Chair Powell's March 6-7 congressional testimony reinforced a cautious stance, stressing data dependence amid inflation's sticky path above the 2% target. The imminent March 19-20 FOMC decision looms as the primary near-term catalyst, with May and June meetings hinging on subsequent CPI and jobs releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 78%
暂停–暂停–降息 11%
其他 10.8%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.6%
$711,640 交易量
$711,640 交易量
Jun 17, 2026
连续三次按兵不动
78%
暂停–暂停–降息
11%
其他
11%
按兵不动–降息–降息
2%
暂停–降息–暂停
1%
连续三次按兵不动 78%
暂停–暂停–降息 11%
其他 10.8%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.6%
$711,640 交易量
$711,640 交易量
Jun 17, 2026
连续三次按兵不动
$18,414 交易量
78%
暂停–暂停–降息
$9,957 交易量
11%
其他
$208,992 交易量
11%
按兵不动–降息–降息
$345,043 交易量
2%
暂停–降息–暂停
$129,235 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at its March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February inflation data and resilient labor market conditions that have solidified expectations for prolonged steady policy. CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year—above the 3.1% forecast—while core CPI remained at 3.8%, and nonfarm payrolls surged 275,000 in February versus 200,000 anticipated. Fed Chair Powell's March 6-7 congressional testimony reinforced a cautious stance, stressing data dependence amid inflation's sticky path above the 2% target. The imminent March 19-20 FOMC decision looms as the primary near-term catalyst, with May and June meetings hinging on subsequent CPI and jobs releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$711,640结束日期
Jun 17, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at its March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February inflation data and resilient labor market conditions that have solidified expectations for prolonged steady policy. CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year—above the 3.1% forecast—while core CPI remained at 3.8%, and nonfarm payrolls surged 275,000 in February versus 200,000 anticipated. Fed Chair Powell's March 6-7 congressional testimony reinforced a cautious stance, stressing data dependence amid inflation's sticky path above the 2% target. The imminent March 19-20 FOMC decision looms as the primary near-term catalyst, with May and June meetings hinging on subsequent CPI and jobs releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$711,640结束日期
Jun 17, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at its March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February inflation data and resilient labor market conditions that have solidified expectations for prolonged steady policy. CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year—above the 3.1% forecast—while core CPI remained at 3.8%, and nonfarm payrolls surged 275,000 in February versus 200,000 anticipated. Fed Chair Powell's March 6-7 congressional testimony reinforced a cautious stance, stressing data dependence amid inflation's sticky path above the 2% target. The imminent March 19-20 FOMC decision looms as the primary near-term catalyst, with May and June meetings hinging on subsequent CPI and jobs releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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