Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting the resilient U.S. labor market evidenced by March 2026's stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. This builds on the Fed's March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target steady amid persistent inflation pressures, with dot plots signaling just one cut for all of 2026. Treasury yields have stabilized near recent highs, underscoring limited easing expectations. Realistic challenges include softer April jobs data or accelerating disinflation in upcoming CPI releases, potentially lifting 25 basis point cut odds from 5.5%; the late-April FOMC looms as a key sentiment gauge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于不变 91%
下调25个基点 6%
加息25个基点 3.3%
降息50个基点或以上 <1%
$5,415,231 交易量
$5,415,231 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50个基点或以上
1%
下调25个基点
6%
不变
91%
加息25个基点
3%
加息50个基点以上
1%
不变 91%
下调25个基点 6%
加息25个基点 3.3%
降息50个基点或以上 <1%
$5,415,231 交易量
$5,415,231 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50个基点或以上
$1,581,918 交易量
1%
下调25个基点
$738,996 交易量
6%
不变
$1,121,736 交易量
91%
加息25个基点
$1,080,608 交易量
3%
加息50个基点以上
$892,482 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting the resilient U.S. labor market evidenced by March 2026's stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. This builds on the Fed's March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target steady amid persistent inflation pressures, with dot plots signaling just one cut for all of 2026. Treasury yields have stabilized near recent highs, underscoring limited easing expectations. Realistic challenges include softer April jobs data or accelerating disinflation in upcoming CPI releases, potentially lifting 25 basis point cut odds from 5.5%; the late-April FOMC looms as a key sentiment gauge.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
交易量
$5,415,231结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting the resilient U.S. labor market evidenced by March 2026's stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. This builds on the Fed's March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target steady amid persistent inflation pressures, with dot plots signaling just one cut for all of 2026. Treasury yields have stabilized near recent highs, underscoring limited easing expectations. Realistic challenges include softer April jobs data or accelerating disinflation in upcoming CPI releases, potentially lifting 25 basis point cut odds from 5.5%; the late-April FOMC looms as a key sentiment gauge.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,415,231结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting the resilient U.S. labor market evidenced by March 2026's stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. This builds on the Fed's March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target steady amid persistent inflation pressures, with dot plots signaling just one cut for all of 2026. Treasury yields have stabilized near recent highs, underscoring limited easing expectations. Realistic challenges include softer April jobs data or accelerating disinflation in upcoming CPI releases, potentially lifting 25 basis point cut odds from 5.5%; the late-April FOMC looms as a key sentiment gauge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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