Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid revised-higher PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady near 4.4%. This hawkish dot plot, signaling just one 25 basis point cut later in the year, aligns with stable Treasury yields—2-year at 3.89%—and minimal rate volatility, underscoring trader consensus on sticky inflation pressures outweighing growth slowdown risks. Upside surprises in April 10 CPI data or softening jobless claims could challenge this positioning, though current sentiment sees scant room for a cut or hike.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于不变 98.0%
下降25个基点 <1%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$41,962,387 交易量
$41,962,387 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
<1%
下降25个基点
1%
不变
98%
提高25个基点以上
1%
不变 98.0%
下降25个基点 <1%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$41,962,387 交易量
$41,962,387 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
$14,791,703 交易量
<1%
下降25个基点
$8,659,167 交易量
1%
不变
$8,777,888 交易量
98%
提高25个基点以上
$9,762,314 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid revised-higher PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady near 4.4%. This hawkish dot plot, signaling just one 25 basis point cut later in the year, aligns with stable Treasury yields—2-year at 3.89%—and minimal rate volatility, underscoring trader consensus on sticky inflation pressures outweighing growth slowdown risks. Upside surprises in April 10 CPI data or softening jobless claims could challenge this positioning, though current sentiment sees scant room for a cut or hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$41,962,387结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid revised-higher PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady near 4.4%. This hawkish dot plot, signaling just one 25 basis point cut later in the year, aligns with stable Treasury yields—2-year at 3.89%—and minimal rate volatility, underscoring trader consensus on sticky inflation pressures outweighing growth slowdown risks. Upside surprises in April 10 CPI data or softening jobless claims could challenge this positioning, though current sentiment sees scant room for a cut or hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$41,962,387结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid revised-higher PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady near 4.4%. This hawkish dot plot, signaling just one 25 basis point cut later in the year, aligns with stable Treasury yields—2-year at 3.89%—and minimal rate volatility, underscoring trader consensus on sticky inflation pressures outweighing growth slowdown risks. Upside surprises in April 10 CPI data or softening jobless claims could challenge this positioning, though current sentiment sees scant room for a cut or hike.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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